Sticking with Santiago

Doncaster: St Leger 2020, Dosage analysis

A quick eleventh-hour run through of the St Leger protagonists.

Profile DI CD

Berkshire Rocco 0-0-3-6-1 = 10 0.18 -0.80

Dawn Patrol 5-0-20-21-2 = 48 0.45 -0.31

Galileo Chrome 1-1-13-10-1 = 26 0.49 -0.35

Mohican Heights 2-1-19-8-4 = 34 0.58 -0.32

Sunchart 3-1-16-8-0 = 28 0.75 -0.04

Subjectivist 2-2-11-7-0 = 22 0.76 -0.05

Santiago 1-2-22-7-0 = 32 0.78 -0.09

Mythical 3-1-20-8-0 = 32 0.78 -0.03

Tyson Fury 2-2-9-4-1 = 18 0.89 0.00

Pyledriver 1-0-2-1-0 = 4 1.00 0.25

Hukum 5-1-19-5-0 = 30 1.07 0.20

Dosage of previous St Leger winners

Year Colt/Filly DI CD

2019 Logician 0.63 -0.14

2018 Kew Gardens 0.67 -0.08

2017 Capri 0.67 -0.10

2016 Harbour Law 1.91 0.31

2015 Simple Verse 0.71 0.08

2014 Kingston Hill 0.90 0.10

2013 Leading Light 0.96 0.10

2012 Encke 0.88 0.10

2011 Masked Marvel 0.41 -0.39

2010 Arctic Cosmos 1.77 0.50

10-year average Dosage index = 0.95

With outliers HL and AC stripped out = 0.73

The Dosage is of no help to us with Pyledriver with only 4 points showing in his profile. Any reading is likely to prove unreliable (but a low points score should not be assumed to be a reflection of ability, simply that the distance aptitude reading is unlikely to prove accurate). Pyledriver has been successful in two Group 2s this season (comfortable winner of the Great Voltigeur on latest outing) and must enter calculations. On form he holds solid chances.

The stamina aptitude of the rest can all be legitimately assessed in terms of the system. The table of runners is arranged in order of the Dosage index, from lowest (most stamina potential) at the top, to highest (least stamina potential) at the bottom.

The Irish Derby winner Santiago, a son of Authorized out of a Cape Cross mare, has subsequently been tried over 2 miles when putting up a decent performance against older horses, when behind Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup. A good balance of speed and stamina with a DI and CD in line with that of previous winners. Bound to give a good account of himself here.

Dawn Patrol was some five lengths adrift of stablemate Santiago in the Irish Derby but was staying on strongly and on a DI of 0.45 will have no trouble seeing out the trip, although others will almost certainly have his measure in terms of pace.

Galileo Chrome was an impressive winner at Listed level on his latest start at Navan. The son of Derby-winner Australia won’t fail through lack of stamina but this is a big step up to Group 1 level.

Despite appearing at the bottom of our stamina aptitude table, with a profile more in line with that of middle-distance performance, Hukum has 5 points in the stamina wing of his profile and would not look out of place as a winner of this. A winner of the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury on his latest start and the Sea The Stars colt can go well in this company. Sunchart is a big outsider, but entitled to take his chance in terms of stamina suitability.

I’ll be sticking with my Irish Derby fancy in Santiago, but Huckum and Pyledriver will keep him honest and Galileo Chrome is the right type in terms of stamina aptitude, if proving capable of stepping up to this level. Dawn Patrol may prove best of the outsiders, particularly if it develops into a proper test of stamina.