2,000 Guineas preview
Lancaster Bomber to clear the way for Churchill, but Eminent can stay on to grab glory
A version of this appeared in this week's edition of the Racing Post Weekender
THE NEW SEASON brings with it the untapped potential of a fresh classic generation of thoroughbreds and the 2,000 Guineas poses the usual conundrum of this brimming potential set against typically scant form. Where the form is inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to fill the gaps and identify those with the best blend of speed and stamina, in relative terms, to succeed in the race.
The table shows the 12 left in at the confirmation stage. As usual, those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI). It should be noted that Galileo (Classic/Solid) and Pivotal (Intermediate/Classic) are the two latest additions to the chef-de-race roster of stallions and their influence is now fully reflected in the following profiles. We were of course already well aware that Galileo is an influence for middle-distance stamina, but there was no pressing need to include him earlier as the profiles for his progeny were already reflecting an adequate stamina position. The emphasis on stamina may now even appear to be a little exaggerated, although this will normalise as subsequent generations begin to work through. However, the overall picture for the Galileo-influenced colts (including those for which he is the sire, grandsire, or damsire) remains the same, in that as before we may assume that the Galileo’s typically have more than enough stamina for this searching mile test.
2017: 2,000 Guineas contenders
Horse Sire/damsire Profile DI CD
Dream Castle Frankel/Dubawi 1-1-7-5-0 = 14 0.65 -0.14
Eminent Frankel/Kingmambo 6-1-20-13-0 = 40 0.74 0.00
Churchill Galileo/Storm Cat 4-3-17-12-0 = 36 0.76 -0.03
Larchmont Lad Footstepsinthesand/King’s Best 2-0-14-4-0 = 20 0.82 0.00
Barney Roy Excelebration/Galileo 1-6-9-6-0 = 22 1.10 0.09
Rivet Fastnet Rock/Galileo 4-5-14-7-0 = 30 1.14 0.20
Law And Order Lawman/Rakti 1-4-5-1-1 = 12 1.67 0.25
Peace Envoy Power/Dansili 1-2-4-1-0 = 8 1.67 0.38
Al Wukair Dream Ahead/Machiavellian 5-0-5-2-0 = 12 1.67 0.67
Top Score Hard Spun/Elusive Quality 3-6-13-0-0 = 22 2.38 0.55
Spirit Of Valor War Front/Grindstone 5-8-13-0-0 = 26 3.00 0.69
Lancaster Bomber War Front/Indian Ridge 2-13-9-0-0 = 24 4.33 0.71
Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.
Team Ballydoyle
After finishing third in a six-furlong maiden at the Curragh last season, the Aidan O’Brien-trained Churchill won his next five races when stepped up to seven, culminating in two Group 1s (National Stakes and Dewhurst), and he was doing his best work at the end of each. The son of Galileo will already need a mile to be seen at his best and will stay further (at the time of writing he is also favourite for the Derby). He has proven decisive in the manner of his victories without being breathtaking. In many ways, he is the antithesis of his brilliantly impressive, but less stamina-laden, Ballydoyle stablemate Caravaggio, who will be prepared for the French 2,000 Guineas in preference to Newmarket.
In addition to Churchill Aidan O’Brien has another three remaining in the mix: Lancaster Bomber, Spirit Of Valor and Peace Envoy. The former two are by War Front and having no stamina points evident in their profiles prop up the foot of our table. We may assume they are there for pacemaking duties.
Lancaster Bomber made the pace for Churchill in the Dewhurst and was still good enough to finish runner-up. By War Front out of an Indian Ridge mare he’s bred to show sustained speed and is a half-brother to Excelebration, who excelled at distances up to a mile. Lancaster Bomber has only won a maiden from seven starts, but is clearly better than this might suggest as he was good enough to finish runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in November. Despite appearing at the foot of our table and laden with prepotent speed he also gets a mile, but is likely to again be sacrificing his own cause for that of his stablemate.
Spirit Of Valor has generally been held up in his races, but has never really got into them. The War Front colt was the winner of his maiden at Naas last term and runner-up in a Group 3 at Leopardstown, but there is no stamina evident in his profile.
At the time of writing Peace Envoy was due to make his seasonal reappearance at Naas on Bank Holiday Monday in the Tetrarch Stakes and was highly tried with last term, winning three of his eight appearances (six of which were at Listed or Group level), and being placed in three others. The son of Power won a Group 3 at the Curragh over 6½ furlongs and finished runner-up in the Group 2 Railway Stakes at the same track before that. Unsuccessful in two subsequent attempts at Group 1 level, he made no impression in the Middle Park on his final start of the season, but was third in the Prix Morny prior to that, just missing second place on the line. Out of a Dansili mare he should appreciate racing in excess of 6 furlongs, the trip he has thus far been campaigned at. He has looked useful so far and although quite exposed can improve again for stepping up in trip.
Trial winners loom large
The William Haggas-trained Rivet held them off in the Racing Post Trophy in a gutsy front-running display at the end of last season, but had previously managed only fifth in the Dewhurst, when he ran too keenly. The Fastnet Rock colt improved on that performance, over course and distance, to finish runner-up to Eminent on his reappearance in the Craven. Like past winners Galileo Gold and Night Of Thunder, Galileo is his damsire and Rivet already gets the trip. However, he would prefer some cut and still has the option of switching to the French equivalent if Newmarket stays good to firm.
In addition to Larchmont Lad, winner of two of his three races last season but only fifth in the Craven on his latest start, Richard Hannon also trains Barney Roy, who won the Greenham on his reappearance beating another Godolphin runner, and race favourite, Dream Castle in convincing fashion. Barney Roy was one of my two ‘dark horses’ to follow at the beginning of the season (the other being Eminent). He won his only other start at Haydock, at the back end of last season, quickening impressively and clearing away. From the first crop of Excelebration, out of a Galileo mare, the colt gets a mile well. He looks to have a bright future and is worth following until he reaches the natural extent of his potential.
The Saeed bin Suroor Dream Castle is another who is only lightly exposed, readily winning his Doncaster maiden last season before running into Barney Roy in the Greenham. The son of Frankel will certainly have enough about him for this straight mile, but his position at the top of our table looks like overstating his case on stamina grounds.
In addition to Dream Castle, who takes his place here in preference to the UAE Derby winner Thunder Snow, Saeed bin Suroor still has Top Score in the race. The son of Hard Spun has won at Listed level at Meyden over 7 furlongs, but is exposed having already raced 11 times and could only manage eleventh place when stepped up in trip behind Thunder Snow in the UAE Derby on his latest start.
The Martyn Meade-trained Eminent was already my other dark horse for the season (in addition to Barney Roy) before he slammed a decent looking field in the Craven. He is lightly exposed having won an 11-runner Newmarket maiden last September on his only other racecourse appearance. The beautifully bred son of Frankel is out of a Kingmambo mare and has reportedly been showing up well at home. He gets a mile comfortably and could easily be at least as good at further. He is an exciting prospect at a mile and above this season, will take the beating here, and is far from a forlorn hope for the Derby itself, on his Dosage figures, featuring as he does near the top of our table. Champion jockey Jim Crowley is free to again take the ride.
James Tate’s Law And Order won his Newmarket maiden last season, as well as on the all-weather at Lingfield at Listed level this season. He finished third in the Feilden Stakes on his latest start behind the John Gosden-trained Khalidi. The son of Lawman already stays a mile but may prove vulnerable to those with a turn of foot.
French challenge
Al Wukair is now the sole possible French challenger. The past three French-trained winners of the Guineas, Pennekamp, Zafonic and Makfi, prepared for the Guineas in the Prix Djebel and the, as yet, unbeaten Al Wukair mastered Criquette Head-Maarek’s National Defense on his reappearance in that race. The Dream Ahead colt was also successful in two starts for his trainer Andre Fabre last term. He looks open to further improvement, gets the trip, and rates a danger to everything.
Sweet spot
The average DI for the past ten 2,000 Guineas winners (adjusted for the inclusion of Galileo and Pivotal) is 1.34 (see table) and while talented Derby-types (with lower DIs than this) can run with great distinction in this race, those with slightly higher DIs than average seem the ideal type, everything else being equal – such as the likes of Makfi (2.11), Sea The Stars (1.67), George Washington (1.67) and Haafhd (also 1.67). Also, the narrowly beaten 2014 runner-up Kingman (on a DI of 2.08) went on to take the Irish 2,000 Guineas, reverse the Newmarket result with Night Of Thunder in the St James’s Palace Stakes, and go on to prove himself champion miler and the world’s highest rated three-year-old colt of 2014. So, a DI of approaching, or around, 2.0 may be ideal, despite the fact that those with additional stamina (of even below DI 1.0), such as Camelot and Frankel, are also able to win at a mile before stepping up in trip.
This year’s favourite appears near the top of our table and like the previous Ballydoyle inmate Australia (who finished third in this in 2014), while Churchill shouldn’t be ruled out for his excess stamina, the question remains whether he also has enough basic speed. There seem no such doubts about the likes of Eminent or Barney Roy.
Dosage of previous 2,000 Guineas winners
Year Colt DI
2016 Galileo Gold 0.74* (from 1.18)
2015 Gleneagles 0.73* (from 1.20)
2014 Night Of Thunder 0.57* (from 0.82)
2013 Dawn Approach 1.00* (from 1.67)
2012 Camelot 0.68
2011 Frankel 0.67* (from 0.94)
2010 Makfi 2.11
2009 Sea The Stars 1.67
2008 Henrythenavigator 1.16
2007 Cockney Rebel 3.36
Average 1.34
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Galileo as a C/S chef-de-race and Pivotal as an I/C.
Verdict
Churchill will have no problem in terms of stamina and his pacemaker(s) should ensure he achieves an optimum performance, so he should certainly be thereabouts, as should Andre Fabre’s charge Al Wukair. But preference goes to the lightly exposed pair Eminent and Barney Roy as colts to make their mark this season.
1) Eminent 2) Barney Roy 3) Churchill 4) Al Wukair
More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.