Derby Preview: Keep faith with Eminent to step up on Guineas form

A version of this appeared in this week's edition of the Racing Post Weekender

THE Investec Derby is once more upon us and without the presence of the long-time ante-post favourite and dual English and Irish 2,000 Guineas winner, Churchill, the race looks to be wide open. The contenders seem to be a mix of plausible, if something less than fully convincing, individuals in terms of form, so we turn to the Dosage system for additional clues.

The accompanying table shows the 20 that could still take part, which includes two supplementary entries (Khalidi and Permian). As usual it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI. As mentioned in our 2,000 Guineas preview, the figures now fully reflect the inclusion of both Galileo and Pivotal to the chef-de-race list. As a result, the Galileo (Classic/Solid) influenced colts are showing a reinforced, or even a slightly exaggerated, shift toward stamina, as the profiles for the stallion’s progeny were already reflecting an adequate stamina position before his inclusion.

2017: Derby contenders

Colt Sire/damsire Profile DI CD

Wings Of Eagles Pour Moi/Kendor 2-0-9-6-1 = 18 0.57 -0.22

Salouen Canford Cliffs/Galileo 2-0-12-8-0 = 22 0.57 -0.18

The Anvil Galileo/Rainbow Quest 5-0-25-18-0 = 48 0.57 -0.17

Cliffs Of Moher Galileo/Dansili 4-1-20-15-0 = 40 0.60 -0.15

Finn McCool Galileo/Halling 5-0-21-14-0 = 40 0.63 -0.10

Dubai Thunder Dubawi/Lando 1-0-3-0-2 = 6 0.71 -0.33

Permian Teofilo/Mark Of Esteem 2-1-14-6-1 = 24 0.71 -0.13

Capri Galileo/Anabaa 4-2-18-12-0 = 36 0.71 -0.06

Glencadam Glory Nathaniel/Orpen 2-1-11-6-0 = 20 0.74 -0.05

Eminent Frankel/Kingmambo 6-1-20-13-0 = 40 0.74 0.00

Venice Beach Galileo/Danehill 4-2-24-12-0 = 42 0.75 -0.05

Douglas Macarthur Galileo/Green Desert 4-3-19-12-0 = 38 0.77 -0.03

Rekindling High Chaparral/Salse 3-0-10-4-1 = 18 0.80 0.00

Crowned Eagle Oasis Dream/In The Wings 2-3-17-7-1 = 30 0.82 -0.07

Khalidi High Chaparral/Cape Cross 2-1-18-4-1 = 26 0.86 -0.04

Cracksman Frankel/Pivotal 1-6-16-7-0 = 30 1.00 0.03

Pealer Campanologist/Big Shuffle 6-0-12-6-0 = 24 1.00 0.25

Diore Lia Yeats/Catrail 4-0-8-4-0 = 16 1.00 0.25

Best Solution Kodiak/Kingmambo 7-2-17-6-0 = 32 1.21 0.31

Benbatl Dubawi/Selkirk 3-0-5-1-1 = 10 1.22 0.30

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Decision to drop ante-post favourite

It is to be regretted that Churchill is not taking part. He has both speed and stamina (which you need for the Derby). Galileo’s tend not to want for sufficient stamina in the context of middle-distances, while his damsire Storm Cat gives him the ability to turn up the heat when he needs to. Churchill does just sufficient for the job and is decisive at the end of his races. He’s a decent type for the Derby and ahead of his victory at Newmarket was fancied (by this column) as much for this as he was for the Guineas.

With the decision to keep him at a mile, at least for the time being, Ballydoyle is considering fielding a team of as many as seven, including six sons of Galileo, namely Cliffs Of Moher, Venice Beach, The Anvil, Douglas Macarthur, Capri and Finn McCool. Wings Of Eagles, by the stallion Pour Moi is also a possibility. The downside to having more than a handful that may be good enough to win the Derby is that it is quite possible that you have none that is.

Trial contenders

In the Derby Trial at Epsom John Gosden’s Cracksman got up to deny Permian. The son of Frankel, out of a Pivotal mare, has an ideal stamina profile for the Derby. He’s certainly one for the shortlist despite ducking the Dante at the eleventh-hour. Indeed, as Permian held all others off at York, his perceived chances for the Derby actually hardened in the markets without him leaving his box!

The Mark Johnston-trained Permian went on from Epsom to win a Listed race at Newmarket before franking that form in the Dante, when seeing off Benbatl in determined style. He looks well worth his place in the line-up and his connections agree, with Sheikh Hamdan stumping up the necessary £85,000 supplementary fee. Stamina will not be an issue for this son of Teofilo, out of a Darshaan mare, and William Buick will take the ride after successfully getting his ban for careless riding reduced, on appeal, in time for Saturday’s big race.

The Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial saw Ballydoyle stablemates Douglas Macarthur, Yucatan (who will now be left until the autumn) and Capri cross the line together and as they also have very similar looking stamina profiles, we might conclude that there is not much to choose between them. While both ought to be in the mix, they don’t quite get the pulses racing either.

The Chester Vase also saw Aidan O’Brien again fill the first three places with Venice Beach and the fast finishing Wings Of Eagles both getting past The Anvil, who set the pace. Venice Beach won his maiden at the third attempt, at Tipperary last term, but only after being stepped up to 12 furlongs. Clearly the Derby trip will be comfortably within the range of this son of Galileo.

Wings Of Eagles, was a maiden winner at Killarney last term, but finished down the field when upped to Group 1 company in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, behind Waldgeist in which his stablemate Capri was placed third. The colt, out of a Kendor mare, has no stamina issue, appearing as he does at the top of our table.

In the Dee Stakes at the Chester meeting Ryan Moore got yet another son of Galileo, Cliffs Of Moher, home from Godolphin’s exposed and highly tried Bay Of Poets. The Galileo colt was also much too good for his opposition, including his stablemate Orderofthegarter, when running away with a 17-runner maiden at Leopardstown last season. By Galileo out of a Dansili mare the colt has stamina aplenty for this and looks the pick of the Ballydoyle team.

Best Solution ran out a clear winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial for Saeed bin Suroor from John Gosden’s Glencadam Glory. Last season’s Autumn Stakes winner was subsequently the runner-up in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud. While his overall form is somewhat patchy this son of Kodiac’s best form entitles him to mix it in this company. At the time of writing, Saeed bin Suroor’s other possible runners are Benbatl and Dubai Thunder.

After winning his Doncaster maiden Benbatl finished behind Eminent in the Craven and Permian in the Dante. The Dubawi colt has chances of staying 12 furlongs but on a DI of 1.22 may be better suited to 10 furlongs, at least for the time being.

Dubai Thunder was a 10-length winner of his only race, an 18-runner maiden at Newbury over 10 furlongs. By Dubawi out of a Lando mare, he should have no trouble at this trip, relished the testing conditions at Newbury, and could be anything.

Dante credentials

The Dante is the most significant trial for the Derby (since it was upgraded to a Group 2 in 1980) with seven colts winning both races since 1980 and the likes of Workforce winning the Derby after finishing runner-up at York in 2010. The 2014 Dante winner, The Grey Gatsby, went on to win the Prix du Jockey-Club and the 2015 Dante one/two, Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs, were also first and second at Epsom. So there are clear precedents for both Permian and Benbatl.

Guineas credentials

Since 1980 seventeen 2,000 Guineas winners have contested the Derby and just three have succeeded in pulling off the double (Nashwan, Sea The Stars and Camelot), but in addition Sir Percy, New Approach and Australia were placed in the Guineas before winning the Derby. Generous was the only colt since 1980 to win the Derby after being unplaced (fourth) in the Guineas, but the likes of Kingston Hill managed to finish runner-up in the 2014 Derby after finishing eighth in the Guineas. So a decent showing from Eminent (sixth in Guineas) is supportable if he is on a similar level to these two, all else being equal (which it rarely is).

Indeed, there are legitimate reasons to believe that Martyn Meade’s Eminent will prove more effective here than his finishing position in the Guineas would suggest. The colt ran wide without much cover at Newmarket and was pinched for room when they quickened in earnest. Like several lining up at Epsom he will enjoy stepping up in trip and would not mind a bit of cut. He also probably had a more taxing race in the Craven than his yard first suspected, according to Meade. While it is true that a list of excuses shouldn’t leave us brimming with confidence, I was sweet on Eminent’s chances in the Derby before the Guineas and nothing I have seen since has put me off that idea. While the son of Frankel will need to markedly improve on his Guineas performance that is exactly what is expected of him. His Dosage reading is just about ideal for this race, on a CD of zero, indicating a perfect balance of speed and stamina, and a DI of below 1, showing good stamina aptitude for middle-distances.

Others

The Joseph O’Brien-trained Rekindling beat a trio of colts (Douglas Macarthur, Yucatan and Capri) under the care of Joseph’s father Aidan in the Ballysax and subsequently finished fourth behind Permian in the Dante. He has the right sort of Dosage reading for the trip and is by the Derby winner High Chapparal.

In addition to Cracksman and Glencadam Glory John Gosden could also saddle Crowned Eagle for Lady Bamford, as well as Pealer and the supplemented Khalidi. Crowned Eagle won his maiden at Nottingham at the back-end of last season and made a winning reappearance in handicap company at Windsor, while Pealer won his maiden, albeit at the fourth time of asking, by some 19 lengths on the all-weather at Southwell. Khalidi looks like an intelligent supplementary entry. The son of Derby-winner High Chaparral has won four of his eight appearances and been placed in three others and has beaten Salouen and Fierce Impact this season. This trio for Gosden are grouped closely in our table and are all shaping as if middle-distances will suit.

The Sylvester Kirk-trained Salouen is exposed, having won two of his 10 appearances and placed in six others. His highest rated performance was when third to Rivet and Yucatan in last season’s Racing Post Trophy. The son of Canford Cliffs finished a promising neck runner-up to Khalidi in the Feilden, over nine furlongs, on his reappearance this term and being out of the Galileo mare Gali Girl the trip should present no problem.

The only filly still engaged is Diore Lia, formerly with Jane Chapple-Hyam, but recently moved to the yard of John Jenkins following a difference of opinion with the owner (about her participation in the Derby). The daughter of Yeats has got nowhere near to winning her maiden in two attempts this season and has a hopeless chance here. The offer of donating winnings to charity, by owner Richard Aylward, is an empty gesture as it is barely conceivable that there will be any. It is to be hoped that apprentice jockey Gina Mangan and mount can keep out of the way of the others in this the world’s greatest Classic horse race. Nicknamed ‘Dora The Explorer’, let’s hope search parties aren’t required to be sent out for her across the far reaches of Epsom Downs.

Speed/stamina balance

The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a DI of 1.0 and a CD of zero. The average DI for the past 10 winners is only a little higher at 1.06 (see small table), adjusted as mentioned for the inclusion of Galileo (classic/solid) and Pivotal (intermediate/classic) to the chef-de-race list).

Dosage of previous Derby winners

Year Colt DI

2016 Harzand 1.40

2015 Golden Horn 1.38

2014 Australia 0.78* (from 1.00)

2013 Ruler Of The World 0.88* (from 1.05)

2012 Camelot 0.94

2011 Pour Moi 0.78

2010 Workforce 1.44

2009 Sea The Stars 1.67

2008 New Approach 0.68* (from 0.89)

2007 Authorized 0.70

Average 1.06

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Galileo as a C/S chef-de-race and Pivotal as an I/C.

Verdict

With so many Galileo-influenced colts taking part our table has a more stamina-laden look to it than is usual. Ballydoyle is again clearly geared up for a major assault of this race with Cliffs Of Moher and Venice Beach spearheading the group in what seems like war-of-attrition tactics. There is also a lot to like about the chances of Cracksman and Permian, while Dubai Thunder could be anything. But EMINENT is taken to prove his 2,000 Guineas form wrong and score a notable victory for his connections.

1) Eminent

2) Cliffs Of Moher

3) Cracksman

4) Dubai Thunder

5) Permian

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.semiller5.wixsite.com/thedosagesystem and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.