St Leger preview: Doncaster 2017

A version of this appeared in this week's Racing Post Weekender

Capri and Stradivarius have the balance of class and stamina, while the filly Coronet will need every yard to be seen at her best

Capri has enough petrol in the tank to get home

THE world’s oldest Classic has a new sponsor in William Hill, but the process of selecting the winner remains the same as ever, finding a genuine Group 1 performer that also relishes a test of stamina. The Dosage system comes into its own in such races and is particularly useful where those taking part are still largely unexposed, or untried at the trip.

The main table shows the 13 still in contention for the season’s final Classic. As usual, it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI). It should be noted that an optimum blend of speed and stamina is required for this race, rather than simply selecting those at the top of the table, and where we identify a combination of class (perhaps best described as effective Group 1 form) and stamina potential we should take particular note.

2017 St Leger contenders

Horse Sire/damsire Profile DI CD

The Anvil Galileo/Rainbow Quest 5-0-25-18-0 = 48 0.57 -0.17

Coronet Dubawi/Darshaan 1-0-7-1-3 = 12 0.60 -0.42

Count Octave Frankel/Mark Of Esteem 1-2-11-7-1 = 22 0.63 -0.23

Abyssinian Galileo/Danehill Dancer 4-1-19-12-0 = 36 0.67 -0.08

Capri Galileo/Anabaa 4-2-18-12-0 = 36 0.71 -0.06

Air Supremacy Galileo/Danehill 4-2-27-13-0 = 46 0.74 -0.07

Venice Beach Galileo/Danehill 4-2-24-12-0 = 42 0.75 -0.05

Douglas Macarthur Galileo/Green Desert 4-3-19-12-0 = 38 0.77 -0.03

Rekindling High Chaparral/Salse 3-0-10-4-1 = 18 0.80 0.00

Stradivarius Sea The Stars/Bering 2-1-15-4-0 = 22 0.91 0.05

Raheen House Sea The Stars/Monsun 2-1-15-4-0 = 22 0.91 0.05

Crystal Ocean Sea The Stars/Mark Of Esteem 2-1-12-0-1 = 16 1.29 0.19

Defoe Dalakhani/Pivotal 2-7-12-1-2 = 24 1.67 0.25

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Ballydoyle squad

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Capri who reversed Derby form with Cracksman and Wings Of Eagles, staying on under pressure in a thrilling finish to the Irish Derby, is well placed in our table to show up to advantage in a race skewed to stamina and effectively sets the standard the others have to beat. Capri’s Ballydoyle stablemate Venice Beach finished runner-up, albeit by some six lengths, to an impressive Cracksman in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur and is likewise strong in stamina, despite the stamina potential for the Galileo’s in our table appearing a little overstated. At the time of writing O’Brien could also saddle any of four others, making up half the field: Abyssinian, Air Supremacy, Douglas Macarthur and The Anvil, all sired by Galileo. Of these The Anvil has the most potential for stamina, at the head of our table, but is likely to be used to make the pace and perhaps does not represent the best blend of what we are looking for amongst these.

Gosden pair

John Gosden’s Stradivarius is a rare example of a three-year-old that is already proven in stamina tests, having won the Queen’s Vase at Ascot and followed up by staying on strongly to beat the Gold Cup winner, Big Orange, in the Goodwood Cup over two miles, on his most recent appearance. He is also well placed in our table, on a similar mark (DI 0.91) to previous winners Kingston Hill (0.90) and Leading Light (0.96) and seems to stay even better than his Dosage reading suggests, making him a very credible alternative to the likes of Capri and Venice Beach.

Stradivarius’s stablemate Coronet is the only filly still engaged in the race, finishing some five lengths adrift of another brilliant stablemate Enable in the Yorkshire Oaks and beating the subsequent Derby winner as a two-year-old in the Zetland. The stoutly bred Dubawi filly has a DI of 0.6 and appears close to the top of our table due primarily to the stamina influence of Shirley Heights passed on through her damsire Darshaan. She will not want for stamina and if reproducing her best form could make a bold show.

The remainder

Joseph O’Brien’s charge Rekindling is another interesting candidate. Despite running no sort of race in the Derby he has since taken the Group 2 Curragh Cup in good style and finished runner-up to Order Of St George in the trial for the Irish St Leger over the same course and distance. The High Chaparral colt is placed just above Stradivarius in our table, showing an optimum blend of speed and stamina for this race and takes a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 118 into the race, 1lb ahead of Stradivarius on 117 and 1lb behind Capri on 119. Last year’s winner, Harbour Law, took an RPR of 105 into the race and ran to a rating of 116 in the race itself, something these three have already achieved.

After being placed twice behind Permian in two Group 2s at York and Ascot, the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Crystal Ocean was a comfortable winner of the Group 3 Gordon Stakes on his most recent start at Goodwood, by some three-and-a-half lengths, when appearing to relish the soft going. The colt stays a mile-and-a-half well and has good stamina influence on his dam side passed down from Shirley Heights (a classic/professional chef-de-race) through Darshaan and Mark Of Esteem, suggesting that he has good chances of staying further, despite a relatively high DI in relation to most of those already mentioned. Despite winning his maiden on good to firm, he should not be inconvenienced by going on the soft side and he looks open to improvement, being less exposed than most of these after just five runs.

Roger Varian’s Defoe is the only one lining up here who remains unbeaten this season, with a four-from-four record, the best of these performances coming on his most recent start in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury. Despite victory over thirteen-and-a-half furlongs there may be others lining up here more suited to this level. However, soft going would enhance his chances.

Raheen House, who won the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket on his most recent outing, is on an identical DI to Stradivarius, both sired by the Derby and Arc winner Sea The Stars, despite being by different damsires and out of different mares, and consequently occupies a sweet spot in our table. Despite being a little behind some of these on form, his damsire is Monsun and the colt is bred to acquit himself well at this trip.

Andrew Balding’s filly Horseplay will not take part, but the trainer could still saddle the colt Count Octave who arguably has the better chance. The son of Frankel, out of a Mark Of Esteem mare, shows up near the top of our table and was held by just a neck by Stradivarius in the Queen’s Vase. While he may be a little flattered by that margin of defeat his chance would be enhanced by good going and he was pulled out of the Great Voltigeur at the eleventh-hour due to unsuitably soft going.

Proven trial

The Great Voltigeur has proven the best trial for the final Classic. Since the early 1970s, Athens Wood, Bustino, Reference Point, Bob’s Return, Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno have won both races and the likes of Moon Madness, Snurge, Silver Patriarch, Bollin Eric, Brian Boru, Mastery and Encke, have been placed in the York race before winning the Leger. As might be expected, being placed in the Derby is also no obstacle to winning at Doncaster, with Shantou, Silver Patriarch, Rule Of Law and Kingston Hill all managing the feat since the mid-1990s. Unfortunately, Cracksman is missing from the line up and the Derby 12th and Voltigeur runner-up Venice Beach looks to have a bit to find. This leaves Capri (who did not compete in the Voltigeur) as the best of the Derby runners lining up here.

Speed/stamina balance

The average DI for the past 10 winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for the race below 1 (see table below). A low, or negative, centre of distribution (CD) is also an advantage (note both Masked Marvel and Conduit had negative CDs). Harbour Law, who benefited from Idaho unseating his rider, ran to a career best when driven out to win this last year, but like Arctic Cosmos, who won in 2010, has a much higher DI than is typical. These two keep the current 10-year average higher than we might expect. Recent winners such as Simple Verse (DI 0.88), Kingston Hill (0.90), Leading Light (0.96), Masked Marvel (0.49) and Conduit (0.76) are on the sort of readings we would normally be looking for.

Dosage of previous St Leger winners

Year Horse DI CD

2016 Harbour Law 1.91 0.31

2015 Simple Verse 0.88 0.03

2014 Kingston Hill 0.90 0.10

2013 Leading Light 0.96 0.10

2012 Encke 1.05 0.20

2011 Masked Marvel 0.49 -0.31

2010 Arctic Cosmos 1.77 0.50

2009 Mastery 1.00 0.00

2008 Conduit 0.76 -0.09

2007 Lucarno 1.34 0.26

10-year average Dosage index = 1.10

Summary

Capri’s Irish Derby victory looks to be about the best form going into this race and his stamina is unlikely to let him down. However, Stradivarius’s last two races, particularly when winning the Goodwood Cup, also look very secure and his stamina is not in question. It will take a good horse to better this pair. The filly Coronet will not want for stamina and soft going would enhance her chance, while Rekindling has patchy form, but the best of it is at trips beyond middle distances, which entitles him to take his chance. Crystal Ocean looks open to improvement and should handle the soft, whereas Defoe will relish soft going and is unbeaten this term, but may be hard put to remain so.

Verdict:

1) Capri

2) Stradivarius

3) Coronet

4) Rekindling

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.semiller5.wixsite.com/thedosagesystem and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.