Royal Ascot 2018: Gold Cup preview
Royal Ascot, Gold Cup preview
A version of this (under a different headline) appeared in this week's Racing Post Weekender
St George in good order to reclaim Cup
THE GOLD CUP again takes centre stage at Ascot as the high point of the Royal Meeting’s several peaks and represents the pinnacle that any staying horse on the Flat can aspire to. It is a truth of the analysis of distance potential in thoroughbreds that the perceived attributes of speed and stamina are far from mutually exclusive and in fact should rather be seen as a form or expression of the same thing, that of endurance under stress (stress defined here as sustained pace). It is rare for a horse to be able to give optimum performance when also asked to endure extreme distance at the sort of pace required for a Group 1. Something invariably has to give, which is why those that do manage to square the circle the most effectively also tend to win it more than once. Yeats, Royal Rebel, Kayf Tara, Drum Taps, Sadeem, Gildoran, Ardross, Le Moss and Sagaro have all won this race at least twice since the mid-1970s. Order Of St George would have been added to this list if he hadn’t failed by the cruellest of margins to peg back Big Orange in a thrilling head-to-head here last year.
Three that lined up last year re-oppose this year, Order Of St George (second), Torcedor (fifth) and Sheikhzayedroad (sixth). The table shows the 11 still engaged in the big race at the confirmation stage, ranked in order of stamina potential from top to bottom.
Stamina credentials
It is usual for a Gold Cup winner to have a Dosage Index (DI) of below 1 and a low (around zero), or negative, centre of distribution (CD). (See table of recent winners.) Trip To Paris was an exception to the rule with a much higher than typical DI of 1.67.
2018 Gold Cup contenders
Horse sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Scotland Monsun/Bachelor Duke 2-0-10-8-0 = 20 0.54 -0.20
Gold Star Nathaniel/Darshaan 4-0-15-7-2 = 28 0.70 -0.11
Idaho Galileo/Danehill 4-2-20-12-0 = 38 0.73 -0.05
Stradivarius Sea The Stars/Bering 2-1-15-4-0 = 22 0.91 0.05
Order Of St George Galileo/Gone West 7-6-23-12-0 = 48 1.04 0.17
Vazirabad Manduro/Linamix 5-0-7-4-0 = 16 1.13 0.38
Sheikhzayedroad Dubawi/Highest Honor 1-1-5-0-1 = 8 1.29 0.13
Max Dynamite Great Journey/Monsun 6-1-13-4-0 = 24 1.29 0.38
Torcedor Fastnet Rock/Sadler’s Wells 5-4-14-5-0 = 28 1.33 0.32
Mount Moriah Mount Nelson/Night Shift 3-1-4-2-0 = 10 1.50 0.50
Desert Skyline Tamayuz/Acatanango 2-1-7-0-0 = 10 1.86 0.50
Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.
Dosage of previous Gold Cup winners
Year Horse DI CD
2017 Big Orange 1.43 0.36
2016 Order Of St George 1.04* 0.17*
2015 Trip To Paris 1.67 0.42
2014 Leading Light 0.96 0.10
2013 Estimate 0.27 -0.81
2012 Colour Vision 0.64 -0.13
2011 Fame And Glory 0.52 -0.34
2010 Rite Of Passage 1.16 0.13
2009 Yeats 0.89 0.08
2008 Yeats 0.89 0.08
Average 0.94
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Galileo as a C/S chef-de-race.
Versatile type
The 2016 Gold Cup hero Order Of St George is again the favourite. The six-year-old entire is a versatile type, in the mould of his Ballydoyle predecessors Yeats and Fame And Glory that seemed just as comfortable over middle-distances as at this marathon trip. The son of Galileo, out of a Gone West mare, has now won 13 of his 24 appearances and been placed in seven others. His highest rated victories came when taking this in decisive fashion in 2016 and when winning two Irish St Legers, in 2015 and 2017. He also made the frame in the 2016 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, behind his classy middle-distance stablemates Found and Highland Reel and finished fourth in last year’s Arc behind the high-class Enable. If lining up in this sort of form he has a compelling chance of reclaiming the Gold Cup. He features in the top half of our table on a DI just above the 10-year average of 0.94 and is a rare type that can reproduce performances at the highest level from 12 to 20 furlongs.
Ballydoyle’s Idaho represents smart back-up for his stablemate. Also by Galileo, out of the Danehill mare Hveger, he is a full brother to a small handful of individuals, notably the top-class Highland Reel who won 10 races at distances up to 12 furlongs, including the King George and Breeders’ Cup Turf. The five-year-old entire is a Group 2 winner of the 2016 Great Voltigeur Stakes and last year’s Hardwicke Stakes at the Royal meeting, adding the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes to his tally earlier this season. He has good chances of staying distances beyond two miles just as efficiently as his stablemate.
The John Gosden-trained Goodwood Cup winner and close-up St Leger third, Stradivarius, was beaten a length into third by Order Of St George and Torcedor in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot at the end of last season. A son of Sea The Stars, the four-year-old is out of the Bering mare Private Life (who won over 11 furlongs) and a half-brother to useful middle-distance winners. The colt beat last year’s Gold Cup winner Big Orange over two miles in the Goodwood Cup and won the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup in good style on his only appearance this term from Desert Skyline. He will be primed to give of his best here and has good chances at the trip, appearing sandwiched between the two Galileo’s in the top half of our table.
Torcedor is by Fastnet Rock out of the Sadler’s Wells mare Magnolia Lane, a sister of four-times Gold Cup winner Yeats. After virtually being pulled up behind Vazirabad in March he bounced back to take the Sagaro Stakes, staying on strongly over two miles at Ascot. The six-year-old gelding has proved capable of winning over two miles and must now improve on his finishing position in this last term in which he stayed on but was outpaced.
Sheikhzayedroad, a son of Dubawi out of a Highest Honor mare, finished sixth in this last season and third the year before. The nine-year-old gelding’s most recent wins were at the end of his 2016 season. He is well suited to a test of stamina, but almost certainly has already seen the best of his chances of landing this.
Desert Skyline is a son of Tamayuz out of the Acatenango mare Diamond Tango, who won a Group 2 in France over 12½ furlongs, and a half-brother to several middle-distance and distance winners. The four-year-old gelding stays a good deal better than his place at the foot of our table would suggest, which is no doubt due to the as yet unrecognized prepotent stamina influence of his damsire in the system.
The Aga Khan’s Vazirabad has assumed something of legendary status winning 15 of his 22 appearances and being placed second in five others. The son of Manduro is an out-and-out stayer, much more than his mid-table showing might suggest. He has already won at this trip and at this level, taking the Prix du Cadran at Chantilly in soft going at the end of last season and this season has taken his tally to 13 Group wins, including three Group 1s and no less than seven Group 2s. He is rated with the best of them lining up here but has never raced outside of France or Dubai. An obvious danger to all, but some cut would aid his chances.
The Willie Mullins-trained Max Dynamite finished third in the Melbourne Cup last term and represents his stable rather than Thomas Hobson. The son of Great Journey last won in Pattern company at the end of his 2015 season and, admirable sort that he is, the eight-year-old gelding isn’t getting any younger. His damsire is Monsun and while stamina as such is not the issue, he was driven along when fourth to Stradivarius in the Yorkshire Cup last month and won’t find things easy here even if back to his best form.
Gold Star won a Newbury maiden when a three-year-old over 12 furlongs (suggesting he has always been earmarked for stamina events) and has since won two handicaps at the same trip. He is difficult to weigh up as his five most recent races were all at Meydan. He finished fifth behind Vazirabad on his most recent outing in the 16-runner Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup over two miles, which was not only the furthest he has run but also his highest rated performance to date. He features near the top of our stamina aptitude table and is a son of Nathaniel out of a Darshaan mare and half-brother to several middle-distance and distance performers. The four-year-old colt will certainly need to improve again but has solid stamina credentials and the step up in trip should bring the best out of him.
Mount Moriah is by Mount Nelson out of a Night Shift mare that won at 12 furlongs. The four-year-old gelding won a Listed race at Nottingham at the beginning of the season and his highest-rated performance to date was when finishing fourth to Order Of St George in Ascot’s Long Distance Cup. However, others are preferred here.
The Andrew Balding-trained Scotland features at the top of our stamina aptitude table. He finished sixth in the 2015 renewal of this but tailed off in the 2016 race. The son of Monsun hasn’t won since he was two and is now seven and looks out of his depth in this sort of company.
Verdict
Order Of St George again looks ready to take on all-comers. The son of Galileo is unlikely to be left with so much to do again this year and few, if any, others lining up in this would also have the class to be placed in the Arc. Those most closely approaching this level that also have good, or proven, chances of staying the trip are Stradivarius who has been placed in a classic and won a Group 1 over two miles, and the imperious Vazirabad, a multiple Group winner of stamina events. Idaho represents decent back-up for his stablemate, he boasts Group 2 winning form and it is possible he will improve again for stepping up in trip. Torcedor should again perform with merit, while the four-year-olds Desert Skyline and Gold Star are both improving and look to have bright futures in Cup races.
1) Order Of St George
2) Vazirabad
3) Stradivarius
4) Totcedor
More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.semiller5.wixsite.com/thedosagesystem and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.