Gold Cup preview: Ascot 2017

St George in good order to double up in the Cup

A version of this appeared in this week's Racing Post Weekender

RETIRED US jockey and trainer, Danny Perlsweig, once remarked that a horse can get any distance if you give it enough time! Amusing as this may be, it also grasps an essential truth that the perceived attributes of speed and stamina are far from mutually exclusive and in fact should rather be seen as a form or expression of the same thing, that of endurance under stress (stress defined here as sustained pace).

It is rare for a horse to be able to give optimum performance when also asked to endure extreme distance at the sort of pace required for a Group 1. Something invariably has to give, which is why those that do manage the feat tend to win it more than once. Yeats, Royal Rebel, Kayf Tara, Drum Taps, Sadeem, Gildoran, Ardross, Le Moss and Sagaro have all won this race at least twice since the mid-1970s.

With two past winners of this race, Order Of St George and Trip To Paris, aiming to add to that number, as well as last year’s third, Sheikhzayedroad, and 2015’s runner-up, Kingfisher, aiming to improve on their finishing positions, we have a good benchmark for the debutants to measure up to.

The table shows 17 of the 18 still engaged in the big race (Sweet Selection is excluded as her points total is too low to give us a meaningful reading). As usual, it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI). As mentioned in our Classic previews, the figures now fully reflect the inclusion of both Galileo and Pivotal to the chef-de-race list.

2017 Ascot Gold Cup contenders

Horse sire/dam sire Profile DI CD

Winning Story New Approach/Darshaan 3-0-12-7-2 = 24 0.60 -0.21

Motherland Galileo/Pips Pride 3-1-16-12-0 = 32 0.60 -0.16

Quest For More Teofilo/Rainbow Quest 3-1-15-11-0 = 30 0.62 -0.13

Kingfisher Galileo/Halling 5-0-21-14-0 = 40 0.63 -0.10

Prince Of Arran Shirocco/Storming Home 2-0-7-4-1 = 14 0.65 -0.14

Nearly Caught New Approach/Danehill 2-2-14-6-2 = 26 0.73 -0.15

Harrison Sixties Icon/Invincible Spirit 3-1-10-6-0 = 20 0.82 0.05

Simple Verse Duke Of Marmalade/Sadler’s Wells 4-2-18-7-1 = 32 0.88 0.03

Order Of St George Galileo/Gone West 7-6-23-12-0 = 48 1.04 0.17

She Is No Lady Lope De Vega/Cape Cross 0-1-13-0-0 = 14 1.15 0.07

Endless Time Sea The Stars/Fantastic Light 3-1-14-1-1 = 20 1.22 0.20

Sheikhzayedroad Dubawi/Highest Honor 1-1-5-0-1 = 8 1.29 0.13

Torcedor Fastnet Rock/Sadler’s Wells 5-4-14-5-0 = 28 1.33 0.32

Big Orange Duke Of Marmalade/Fasliyev 5-2-19-2-0 = 28 1.43 0.36

Trip To Paris Champs Elysees/Fantastic Light 2-2-7-1-0 = 12 1.67 0.42

Qewy Street Cry/Barathea 8-1-8-2-1 = 20 1.86 0.65

Harbour Law Lawman/Pivotal 1-5-9-0-1 = 16 1.91 0.31

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution. The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Versatile type

Last year’s Gold Cup hero, the Aidan O’Brien-trained Order Of St George, has again dominated the market this year. He is a versatile type, in the mould of his predecessors Yeats and Fame And Glory, that seems just as comfortable over middle distances as at this marathon trip. The son of Galileo, out of a Gone West mare, has won eight of his 17 appearances and been placed in six others. His highest rated winning performances came when taking this in decisive fashion last year, when winning the Irish St Leger by 11 lengths in 2015, and his latest appearance in May in a Listed event at Leopardstown. He was also placed in last season’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, over 12 furlongs, behind high-class middle-distance stablemates Found and Highland Reel. His trainer possibly went to the well once too often with him last term when he was subsequently beaten 1½ lengths into fourth behind Gold Cup third Sheikhzayedroad in the Group 2 Long Distance Cup back at Ascot. But if lining up in the sort of form that saw him win this and be placed in the Arc he has irresistible claims on a second Gold Cup.

Order Of St George’s stablemate Kingfisher finished second to Trip To Paris in this in 2015 and, as we might expect, has the right sort of stamina profile, with a DI of below 1 and a negative centre of distribution (CD), as does Motherland, also by Galileo, who is set to be sent out by Aidan’s son Joseph.

Torcedor has won two-from-two, both over a mile-and-three-quarters, since being switched to Jessica Harrington’s yard, including when holding on from Order Of St George in the Vintage Crop Stakes on his latest start at Navan.

After finishing third in last season’s Gold Cup the David Simcock-trained Sheikhzayedroad followed up with a placed effort at Goodwood, behind Big Orange, and a winning performance in the Doncaster Cup, touching off Quest For More, before again accounting for the same horse and gaining revenge on Order Of St George back at Ascot in the Long Distance Cup. The son of Dubawi is well suited to a test of stamina and his recent form is ultra-consistent.

Charlie Appleby’s Endless Time is a Lancashire Oaks winner who has finished runner-up in two Group 1s in France, most significantly when runner-up to Vazirabad in the Prix Royal-Oak at Saint-Cloud. The five-year-old mare was also a close-up fourth in the latest renewal of the Yorkshire Cup, behind Dartmouth. She is by Sea The Stars out of a Fantastic Light mare. Both these stallions are showing good stamina influence for their progeny, but neither are yet incorporated into the Dosage system, which means she is likely to stay a good deal better than her mid-rank in our table might suggest.

Appleby could also saddle Qewy, who was beaten a neck in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal Meeting last year and subsequently won twice in Australia at the backend of last season, when he also grabbed fourth in the Melbourne Cup. Stamina is not an issue.

Close form

Quest For More has very close form with several here. He has finished runner-up to Sheikhzayedroad in both the Doncaster Cup and Long Distance Cup, beat Vazirabad a neck in the Prix du Cadran, and took the Lonsdale Cup at York, in which Trip to Paris was fourth, all at two miles or more. Stamina is not in doubt for this son of Teofilo, out of a Rainbow Quest mare, and Roger Charlton’s charge would have a major chance at this trip, apart from seeming to have gone off the boil in his two races this season.

Ed Dunlop’s Gold Cup winner Trip to Paris has not managed to get his head in front in 10 starts since that win two years ago, and doesn’t appear to be in good enough form, finishing second-last to Kingfisher’s last in the 14-runner Dubai Gold Cup in March and being outpaced on his latest start at Nottingham in April.

Big Orange, trained by Michael Bell, won back-to-back Group 2 races in 2015 at Newmarket and Goodwood, at 12 furlongs and 16 furlongs, and achieved the identical feat in 2016. The six-year-old gelding is a son of Duke Of Marmalade and shows he remains in good heart this season when beaten a couple of lengths into fourth in the Dubai Gold Cup before pulverizing his field in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown in which She Is No Lady, who won a Listed race at Saint-Cloud at the end of last season, was seven lengths back in third.

Mick Channon has hopes that Harrison, who won on his seasonal reappearance at Chelmsford, will cope with the step up in trip. However, the son of Sixties Icon subsequently could manage only fourth in a Listed event at York.

Laura Mongan’s St Leger winner Harbour Law is relatively lightly raced, having won three of his seven starts and finished runner-up in the Queen’s Vase at the Royal Meeting last year, but the four-year-old colt disappointed on his seasonal reappearance in the Sagaro Stakes, in which he finished last of seven runners behind Sweet Selection. Prince Of Arran was runner-up in the same race for trainer Charlie Fellowes and has the right sort of stamina profile to appreciate the step up in trip.

Hughie Morrison’s Cesarewitch and Sagaro Stakes winner, the five-year-old mare Sweet Selection, is excluded from our table, but we know she has won at two miles and further, accounting for the likes of Prince Of Arran and Nearly Caught in her most recent appearance at Ascot, so stamina aptitude is clearly not a worry.

Sweet Selection’s stablemate Nearly Caught was third in the Sagaro and won twice at Deauville last season. The son of New Approach finished runner-up in a Group 2 in Germany over two miles on his most recent start. He stays well and has the right sort of Dosage reading for this. Nevertheless, he may be vulnerable to those with a decisive turn of foot at the end of the race.

The mare, Simple Verse has proven extremely consistent, winning five of her 11 Flat turf performances and being placed in four others, for trainer Ralph Beckett. She has chances of staying further and should be right in the mix if adjusting to yet another step up in trip.

Godolphin’s four-year-old gelding, Winning Story, features at the top of our table for stamina aptitude and has winning form over two miles on the all-weather, but could only finish fifth when returning to turf in the Ormonde Stakes and may be short of the class required for this. He nonetheless shows strong stamina aptitude passed down from Shirley Heights through Darshaan on his damside.

Dosage of previous Gold Cup winners

Year horse DI CD

2016 Order Of St George 1.04* 0.17*

2015 Trip To Paris 1.67 0.42

2014 Leading Light 0.96 0.10

2013 Estimate 0.27 -0.81

2012 Colour Vision 0.64 -0.13

2011 Fame And Glory 0.52 -0.34

2010 Rite Of Passage 1.16 0.13

2009 Yeats 0.89 0.08

2008 Yeats 0.89 0.08

2007 Yeats 0.89 0.08

Average 0.89

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Galileo as a C/S chef-de-race and Pivotal as an I/C.

Stamina credentials

It is usual for a Gold Cup winner to have a DI of below 1 and a low, or negative, CD (see table of recent winners). Trip To Paris was an exception with a much higher than typical DI of 1.67, but this is no doubt due to the stamina influence of Fantastic Light (his damsire) not yet being reflected in the system.

Verdict

Without Order Of St George the race looks wide open, but with him it looks a fairly straightforward outcome, with his biggest danger Vazirabad not making the line-up. Of the others, Big Orange and Sheikhzayedroad seem to be performing to near their best and Quest For More has stamina reserves, but does not appear to be in the best of form this season. Of the mares, Endless Time is highly rated, as is Simple Verse who will make her presence felt if adjusting to the step up in trip.

1) Order Of St George

2) Simple Verse

3) Big Orange

4) Sheikhzayedroad

5) Endless Time

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.semiller5.wixsite.com/thedosagesystem and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.