Doncaster 2018: St Leger Preview
A version of this appeared in this week's Racing Post Weekender
Lord Lloyd-Webber’s unbeaten filly (one of just two remaining in the race) will give the colts plenty to think about in the final Classic, if eventually lining up here rather than in France
Lah Ti Dar to hit the right notes over Leger trip
Alternative headline if Lah Ti Dar is taken out to run in France
Old Persian to pull the rug from under favourite
THE William Hill St Leger favours genuine Group 1 performers that also thrive on a test of stamina. As with the Derby an optimum blend of speed and stamina is required for the race, rather than simply selecting those at the top of our stamina aptitude table. And where we identify a combination of class allied to stamina aptitude we should take particular note.
Our main table shows the 16 still in contention for this season’s renewal (including one supplementary entry). At the five-day entry stage, Aidan O’Brien is responsible for no less than seven of these and his son Joseph trains another. As usual it is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI).
2018 St Leger contenders
Colt or filly Sire/damsire Profile DI CD
Nelson Frankel/Dalakhani 1-1-10-7-1 = 20 0.54 -0.30
Latrobe Camelot/Shamardal 2-0-14-8-0 = 24 0.60 -0.17
Flag Of Honour Galileo/Warning 4-0-20-12-0 = 36 0.64 -0.11
Kew Gardens Galileo/Desert King 4-1-19-12-0 = 36 0.67 -0.08
The Pentagon Galileo/Unfuwain 5-1-18-12-0 = 36 0.71 -0.03
Loxley New Approach/Nayef 3-0-9-6-0 = 18 0.71 0.00
Lah Ti Dar Dubawi/Singspiel 2-0-8-3-1 = 14 0.75 -0.07
Southern France Galileo/Anabaa 5-2-19-12-0 = 38 0.77 0.00
Old Persian Dubawi/Singspiel 3-0-9-3-1 = 16 0.88 0.06
Giuseppe Garibaldi Galileo/Danehill Dancer 7-4-18-13-0 = 42 0.91 0.12
Maid Up Mastercraftsman/Hurricane Run 2-1-10-3-0 = 16 1.00 0.13
Zabriskie Frankel/Nureyev 8-1-24-7-0 = 40 1.11 0.25
Brundtland Dubawi/Hurricane Run 1-4-5-3-1 = 14 1.15 0.07
Raymond Tusk High Chaparral/Danehill 3-4-14-4-1 = 26 1.17 0.15
Dee Ex Bee Farrh/Seeking The Gold 5-4-13-0-0 = 22 2.38 0.64
Proschema Declaration Of War/Zafonic 4-5-9-0-0 = 18 3.00 0.72
2017: Capri 4-2-18-12-0 = 36, DI = 0.71, CD = -0.06
Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.
Proven trial
The Great Voltigeur has proven to be the best trial for the final Classic. Since the early 1970s, Athens Wood, Bustino, Reference Point, Bob’s Return, Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno have won both races and the likes of Moon Madness, Snurge, Silver Patriarch, Bollin Eric, Brian Boru, Mastery and Encke have been placed in the York race before winning the Leger. Old Persian and Kew Gardens (the first and third from this year’s renewal) are qualifiers on this measure.
Being placed in the Derby is also no obstacle to winning the Leger, with Shantou, Silver Patriarch, Rule Of Law and Kingston Hill all managing the feat since the mid-1990s. While this column’s selection and last year’s winner Capri could only manage sixth at Epsom, he reversed form with Wings Of Eagles and Cracksman in the Irish Derby, proving himself entitled to line-up in Group 1 company. The highest finisher from this year’s Derby to appear here is the Mark Johnston-trained runner-up Dee Ex Bee, but he is not guaranteed to see out this trip as effectively as many of the others lining up here.
Contenders
Kew Gardens
Galileo – Chelsea Rose (Desert King)
Of the seven that Aidan O’Brien still has engaged in the race, Kew Gardens, by Galileo out of a Desert King mare, is clearly favoured. The colt ran out a comfortable winner over his stablemates Southern France and Nelson in the Queen’s Vase and has nothing to fear on the stamina front, being ideally placed in our table. However, he was outpaced in the Derby when finishing down the field and was held by Old Persian in York’s Great Voltigeur by a couple of lengths, albeit carrying a 5lb Group 1 penalty for his success in the Grand Prix de Paris (although it seems to have been overlooked that Old Persian was carrying a 3lb Group 2 penalty himself, making the pull between the pair just 2lb). Kew Gardens has maintained his position at the head of the Leger market for some time now but, despite his suitability at the trip, seems something less than watertight value.
Flag Of Honour
Galileo – Hawala (Warning)
Another Galileo colt and another that is well exposed, winning four of his nine starts, but has shown notable improvement after being stepped up in trip to 14 furlongs, most recently beating the five-year-old Twilight Payment in a Group 3 at the Curragh (with Southern France behind). He is the highest in our table (i.e. shows the greatest stamina potential) of the five Galileo colts trained at Ballydoyle that are still in the race at the time of writing. He can be expected to make his presence felt if taking part in this rather than running in Ireland.
Southern France
Galileo – Alta Anna (Anabaa)
Winner of a Listed race over 13 furlongs in Ireland and bred on the same Galileo/Anabaa cross as Capri, last year’s winner. Stamina won’t be an issue but the colt has subsequently shown himself to be a little short of the top flight when finishing behind Kew Gardens at Ascot and behind Flag Of Honour at the Curragh.
The Pentagon
Galileo – Vadawina (Unfuwain)
Has been highly tried at Group level with modest success. The Galileo colt finished eighth in the Derby, a place ahead of Kew Gardens, and like that one was outpaced and a spent force at the finish, which despite plenty of prepotent stamina evident in his pedigree would be a worry. Well held by the likes of Latrobe (Irish Derby) and Old Persian (Great Voltigeur).
Nelson
Frankel – Moonstone (Dalakhani)
Despite being a dual Group 3 winner, he has not really lived up to his hype after a promising two-year-old season. The son of Frankel, out of the Dalakhani mare Moonstone, was third behind his stablemates in the Queen’s Vase and will stay if his position at the head of our stamina aptitude table is anything to go by. However, we should note that his position in the table is as much to do with just two points in the speed wing of his profile than any indication of bottomless stamina as such. However, the balance of his distance potential, in relative terms, is decidedly for stamina over speed. (And yet note that the other Frankel in the race, with healthier prepotent speed influences, appears in the bottom half of our table.)
Giuseppe Garibaldi
Galileo – Queenscliff (Danehill Dancer)
Winner of a Listed event in Ireland and has been placed behind his stablemate Flag Of Honour on three occasions. Decent stamina and speed influences and performs to a consistent level, but looks held by the likes of Flag Of Honour and Old Persian.
Zabriskie
Frankel – Moonlight’s Box (Nureyev)
Maiden winner whose highest rated performance came when third to Roaring Lion in the Dante. Subsequently well beaten in the Derby and the Great Voltigeur and others have a stronger case at the trip.
Lah Ti Dar
Dubawi – Dar Re Mi (Singspiel)
Lord Lloyd-Webber’s unbeaten and relatively unexposed daughter of Dubawi is one of only two fillies that could still make the line-up. She has won all three of her races, two at Listed level, including demolishing her field by 10 lengths in the Galtres Stakes over 12 furlongs on her latest appearance at York. She is bred on the same Dubawi/Singspiel cross as Charlie Appleby’s Old Persian and is out of the 12-furlong Group 1 winner Dar Re Mi and a sister to the successful middle-distance performer So Mi Dar, also trained by John Gosden. Her middle-distance form and her pedigree are as good as any and better than most lining up here and if showing any improvement for stepping up in trip – which her Dosage reading suggests will be the case – will be a tough act to better. The note of caution is that she could still take part in the Prix Vermeille, on her way to the Arc, in preference to this.
Latrobe
Camelot – Question Times (Shamardal)
The 12-furlong maiden winner Latrobe narrowly followed up in the Irish Derby, but subsequently found the company too hot when brought back in distance in the Juddmonte International. Being by St Leger runner-up Camelot (a stallion son of Montjeu, a classic/solid influence for stamina) the colt should be capable of stepping up in trip for his trainer Joseph O’Brien and appears near the head of our table despite his sharper dam side influences.
Old Persian
Dubawi – Indian Petal (Singspiel)
My long-term ante-post fancy for this was the unexposed Charlie Appleby-trained Ghaiyyath, but in his absence Old Persian looks a very credible contender from the same yard. This year’s Great Voltigeur winner stayed on gamely to deny another particularly decent stablemate (the gelding Cross Counter) at York, with Kew Gardens back in third, and had previously looked impressive when forging clear of Rostropovich over 12 furlongs at Royal Ascot in the King Edward VII Stakes. By Dubawi, out of a Singspiel mare, the colt’s Dosage reading gives him every chance of seeing out this longer trip. Even though there are several with comparable stamina credentials the dual Group 2 winner also has that touch of class and determination which could prove decisive.
Loxley
New Approach – Lady Marian (Nayef)
Appleby could also saddle Loxley who has won his two most recent races at Listed and Group 2 level at Deauville, after finishing runner-up in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket. The son of New Approach stays beyond 12 furlongs and is handily placed in our table to stretch a bit further. The colt has shown a decent level of performance and is improving at the right time.
Brundtland
Dubawi – Future Generation (Hurricane Run)
The unbeaten and unexposed Dubawi colt has won both his races, running on strongly to take a Listed event at Clairefontaine over 12 furlongs on his latest appearance. The colt has much yet to prove and others are preferred on stamina grounds, but if Godolphin and Appleby allow him to take his chance he should not be ignored. Note that both Loxley and Brundtland are also entered for Sunday’s Prix Niel at Longchamp and Appleby has indicated that only one or the other of them is likely to join Old Persian at Doncaster.
Raymond Tusk
High Chaparral – Dancing Shoes (Danehill)
Hamilton’s Glasgow Stakes winner subsequently finished runner-up in the Geoffrey Freer for trainer Richard Hannon. Despite appearing well down our stamina aptitude table, the son of High Chaparral, out of a Danehill mare, does have a certain amount of stamina potential. However, as a half-brother to winners at eight to 10 furlongs, there are others here who should see out the trip to more telling effect.
Dee Ex Bee
Farhh – Dubai Sunrise (Seeking The Gold)
The highest rated performance going into the race is probably from Mark Johnston’s Derby runner-up. However, the Farhh colt has been beaten in three subsequent outings over 12 furlongs at Group level and is unlikely to improve for stepping up in trip, featuring as he does near the foot of our stamina aptitude table.
Proschema
Declaration Of War – Notable (Zafonic)
The son of Declaration Of War, out of a Zafonic mare, has no points in the stamina wing of his profile and features at the foot of our table. While he has won over 10 and 12 furlongs (in a Novice Stakes race at Haydock) the colt has not won in four subsequent attempts at distances above 12 furlongs and has not been placed over any distance at Group level. There are others who are better fancied here.
Maid Up
Mastercraftsman – Complexion (Hurricane Run)
The Andrew Balding-trained March Stakes winner, who was previously a short-head runner-up in the Lilly Langtry (also at Goodwood) has been supplemented for the race at a cost of £50,000. Winner of four of her last five starts (plus runner-up by a short-head in a Group 2) the daughter of Mastercraftsman is clearly in fine form and is not daunted by the trip. Her Dosage reading has more the look of a middle-distance performer, but three points in the stamina wing of her profile, derived from her exposure to the Sadler’s Well/Montjeu line through to Hurricane Run (her damsire), gives her sufficient stamina attributes to take her place here.
Speed/stamina balance
The average DI for the past 10 winners is slightly above 1 (at 1.04), with the ideal type for the race below 1 (see small table). A low, or negative, centre of distribution (CD) is also an advantage (note that last year’s winner Capri, together with Masked Marvel and Conduit have negative CDs). Both Harbour Law and Arctic Cosmos had much higher DIs than we might expect for victory in this race and keep the 10-year average higher than we might expect. Recent winners such as Capri (DI 0.71), Simple Verse (0.88), Kingston Hill (0.90), Leading Light (0.96), Masked Marvel (0.49) and Conduit (0.76) are on the sort of readings we would normally be looking for (i.e. a DI of below 1 and a low or negative CD).
Dosage of previous St Leger winners
Year Horse DI CD
2017 Capri 0.71 -0.06
2016 Harbour Law 1.91 0.31
2015 Simple Verse 0.88 0.03
2014 Kingston Hill 0.90 0.10
2013 Leading Light 0.96 0.10
2012 Encke 1.05 0.20
2011 Masked Marvel 0.49 -0.31
2010 Arctic Cosmos 1.77 0.50
2009 Mastery 1.00 0.00
2008 Conduit 0.76 -0.09
10-year average Dosage index = 1.04
Summary
Kew Gardens has held his position at the head of the market for some time and will have no issues with the trip. However, there are others lining up here with comparable chances at bigger prices. Latrobe takes Irish Derby form into the race (which proved good enough for Capri last year), while Great Voltigeur-winner Old Persian has beaten good horses at Group 2 level and is another who should enjoy stepping up in trip. There is also a lot to like about Flag Of Honour’s chances and Loxley is not out of it. Assuming that the relatively unexposed filly Lah Ti Dar takes her chance, it would be no surprise if the unbeaten daughter of Dubawi continued to improve at this trip and consequently take the beating.
Verdict:
1) Lah Ti Dar
2) Old Persian
3) Kew Gardens
4) Flag Of Honour
5) Loxley
6) Latrobe
More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found at www.semiller5.wixsite.com/thedosagesystem and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.