Epsom: Derby and Oaks analysis

A version of this appears in this week's Racing Post Weekender

Saxon Warrior can outbattle rivals on route to Crown

THE Investec Oaks and the Derby are once more upon us, with the combatants vying to carry the day and secure their place in the annals of racing history. The accompanying tables show those that could still take part at the confirmation stage (13 in the Oaks and 14 in the Derby). As usual they are arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI). As explained in our recent Guineas feature, the figures now fully reflect the inclusion of Galileo to the chef-de-race list as a Classic/Solid influence (for classic speed and middle-distance stamina). As a result, those pedigrees affected are now showing a reinforced, or even a slightly exaggerated, shift to stamina.

Galileo appears in the pedigrees of three of the past 10 Derby winners and five of the past 10 Oaks winners. The 10-year average for the two races now shows at 0.93 for the Derby and 1.37 for the Oaks (with the anomaly of Dancing Rain stripped out the fillies’ classic is 0.99). This supports the assumption that a colt or filly with a DI of about 1.00 (or lower) and a CD of around zero has the right blend of speed and stamina to succeed in the Epsom classics.

Dante credentials

Contrary to the oft quoted adage that the Guineas is the best trial for the Derby, the Dante (named after the 1945 Derby winner) actually is the most significant trial, with eight colts winning both races since 1980 (when it was upgraded to a Group 2). Workforce also won the Derby after finishing runner-up at York in 2010. The 2015 Dante one/two, Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs, confirmed those finishing positions at Epsom and Dante winners Libertarian, Tartan Bearer, Moon Ballad, Sakhee and Damister were all good enough to subsequently be placed in the Derby. This is a pointer to Roaring Lion, who won the Dante in good style, being right there in the shake-up. The question remains will he be as effective at 12 furlongs as he is at 10 furlongs.

Guineas credentials

The Guineas is nonetheless a solid trial, although of the seventeen 2,000 Guineas winners to have contested the Derby since 1980 just three have succeeded in pulling off the double (Nashwan, Sea The Stars and Camelot), but in addition Sir Percy, New Approach and Australia were placed in the Guineas before winning the Derby. Generous was the only colt since 1980 to win the Derby after being unplaced (fourth) in the Guineas. And Golan, Doyoun, Dancing Brave and El Gran Senor were all good enough to go on to be placed in the Derby after winning at Newmarket. The pointers here are for Saxon Warrior and Masar, first and third in this year’s renewal of the 2,000 Guineas. According to our analysis, both will be fully effective at 12 furlongs and in fact should improve again at the trip. They also appear next to each other in our table.

Derby contenders 2018

Colt Sire/damsire Profile DI CD

Nelson Frankel/Dalakhani 1-1-10-7-1 = 20 0.54 -0.30

Delano Roosevelt Galileo/Danehill Dancer 4-1-17-12-0 = 34 0.66 -0.09

Kew Gardens Galileo/Desert King 4-1-19-12-0 = 36 0.67 -0.08

Young Rascal Intello/Clodovil 1-2-9-6-0 = 18 0.71 -0.11

The Pentagon Galileo/Unfuwain 5-1-18-12-0 = 36 0.71 -0.03

Sevenna Star Redoute’s Choice/Galileo 2-2-14-7-1 = 26 0.73 -0.12

Masar New Approach/Cape Cross 2-1-17-6-0 = 26 0.79 -0.04

Saxon Warrior Deep Impact/Galileo 3-3-14-8-0 = 28 0.87 0.04

Knight To Behold Sea The Stars/Sadler’s Wells 3-1-18-4-0 = 26 1.00 0.12

Hazapour Shamardal/Daylami 1-0-10-1-0 = 12 1.00 0.08

Rostropovich Frankel/Machiavellian 7-1-13-7-0 = 28 1.07 0.29

Zabriskie Frankel/Nureyev 8-1-24-7-0 = 40 1.11 0.25

Dee Ex Bee Farrh/Seeking The Gold 5-4-13-0-0 = 22 2.38 0.64

Roaring Lion Kitten’s Joy/Street Sense 6-5-7-2-0 = 20 2.64 0.75

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.

The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Dosage of previous Derby winners

Year Colt DI

2017 Wings Of Eagles 0.57

2016 Harzand 1.40

2015 Golden Horn 1.38

2014 Australia 0.67*

2013 Ruler Of The World 0.77*

2012 Camelot 0.68

2011 Pour Moi 0.57

2010 Workforce 1.00

2009 Sea The Stars 1.67

2008 New Approach 0.58*

Average 0.93

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Galileo as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race.

Derby

Saxon Warrior

Deep Impact – Maybe (Galileo)

Prior to the 2,000 Guineas we argued that whatever Saxon Warrior did at Newmarket would be a bonus. The fact that he was good enough to win the spring classic speaks volumes, as the colt looks to have an even better stamina profile for the Derby than he did for the Guineas, with Deep Impact his sire and Galileo his damsire. He also inherits a bit of kick from his dam Maybe who was unbeaten in five appearances as a two-year-old at six and seven furlongs and made the frame in the 1,000 Guineas as a three-year-old. The son of Deep Impact has a favourite’s chance on form and breeding here, with the sort of stamina profile that marks him out as a potential credible Triple Crown prospect.

Delano Roosevelt

Galileo – Again (Danehill Dancer)

The winner of a Leopardstown maiden, the colt has finished runner-up in his last three races behind Hazapour, Nelson and Saxon Warrior but looks very well suited to a step up in trip, with none of those absolutely certain to confirm form with him at 12 furlongs. By Galileo out of the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Again and a full brother to modest middle-distance performer Indian Maharaja and the once raced filly Falling Leaves. He shows good stamina potential and has solid place chances.

Nelson

Frankel – Moonstone (Dalakhani)

Winner of the Ballysax Stakes over 10 furlongs from his Ballydoyle stablemates Delano Roosevelt and The Pentagon but finished behind that pair when asked to make the pace on the return trip to Leopardstown in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, won by Hazapour. He features at the top of our table for stamina aptitude and will stay the trip if not asked to set a blistering pace.

The Pentagon

Galileo – Vadawina (Unfuwain)

Another by Galileo who will not be at all inconvenienced by stepping up in trip. Staying on in third in the Racing Post Trophy last term, behind Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion (which remains his highest rated performance to date) and placed third in his two appearances this season at Group 3 level. The Galileo colt, out of an Unfuwain mare, will not fail through want of stamina but may be just short of the class required to succeed in this.

Kew Gardens

Galileo – Chelsea Rose (Desert King)

A decent runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial, albeit some three lengths behind the winner with the third a further seven lengths adrift. Like many of his Ballydoyle stablemates the Galileo colt should prove suited to the trip.

Zabriskie

Frankel – Moonlight’s Box (Nureyev)

A maiden winner last season but has been slammed in his three subsequent races behind Ghaiyyath, Crossed Baton and Roaring Lion when upped in trip. While the colt should prove effective at middle distances his optimum may be short of 12 furlongs.

Rostropovich

Frankel – Tyranny (Machiavellian)

Dee Stakes winner Rostropovich is a son of Frankel out of a Machiavellian mare and another string to the Ballydoyle bow. Seemingly suited to the Derby trip but connections had been considering the Prix du Jockey Club rather than Epsom.

Hazapour

Shamardal – Hazarafa (Daylami)

The son of Shamardal is closely related on his damside to the Derby winner Harzand (by Sea The Stars) and both receive good stamina attributes from Shirley Heights via his stallion son Darshaan and consequently have quite similar stamina profiles. Hazapour is out of a Daylami mare that won at Listed level over 12 furlongs and a half-brother to a couple of modest middle-distance winners. The colt held off Delano Roosevelt’s late challenge in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, but over an additional two furlongs is not certain to confirm form with that one in the Derby itself.

Masar

New Approach ­­– Khawlah (Cape Cross)

The Charlie Appleby-trained Masar took the Craven in impressive style and ran another fine race in the 2,000 Guineas, in third. The colt is by Derby-winner and 2,000 Guineas runner-up New Approach (a stallion son of Galileo) out of the Cape Cross mare Khawlah, who won the UAE Derby over nine-and-a-half furlongs. Masar should prove proficient at middle distances. The jury is still out as to whether that will be nearer 10 than 12 furlongs, but his Dosage reading gives him every chance of getting the required trip here.

Roaring Lion

Kitten’s Joy – Vionnet (Street Sense)

Roaring Lion has been beaten twice by Saxon Warrior, having to give best to him after hitting the front in the Racing Post Trophy at the end of last season as well as when over two lengths fifth to him in the 2,000 Guineas. He advertised the form at York when proving just as good over 10 furlongs, running up to his best to take the Dante. He looks well suited to trips at around nine or 10 furlongs, but it is possible that he won’t be fully effective if asked to step up again to 12 furlongs as his position at the foot of our table suggests.

Young Rascal

Intello – Rock My Soul (Clodovil)

The Chester Vase winner has proved he can win at this trip but must now prove he can win in this company. His Dosage profile puts him just where we would expect to see him if he is to have chances here. He will not fail for stamina and looks quite decent.

Dee Ex Bee

Farrh – Dubai Sunrise (Seeking The Gold)

The Mark Johnston-trained colt finished third to Crossed Baton on his seasonal reappearance at Epsom before he was runner-up in the Chester Vase. The Farrh colt has no points in the stamina wing of his profile but form suggests he stays much better than his low position in our table might suggest.

Knight To Behold

Sea The Stars – Angel Of The Gwaun (Sadler’s Well)

Knight To Behold stayed on strongly to hold off the late challenge of Kew Gardens in the Lingfield Derby Trial. A son of Sea The Stars out of a Sadler’s Wells mare and a half-brother to a handful of middle- and long-distance performers. The Harry Dunlop-trained colt features mid-table on a stamina profile which gives him every chance of making his presence felt in this.

Sevenna Star

Redoute’s Choice – Sevenna (Galileo)

A 14-length winner of a Novice Stakes race at Windsor on his reappearance this season followed by a short-head victory when upped in class in Sandown’s Classic Trial. Stays 10 furlongs well and likely to be at least as effective over 12 furlongs.

Verdict

Saxon Warrior holds the aces in this with regard to form and stamina aptitude. Masar can also boast a very strong hand. The pair are locked together in our table and so it may well prove in the race itself. As to the places, Delano Roosevelt and his Derrinstown conqueror Hazapour, as well as the Harry Dunlop-trained Knight To Behold, have legitimate chances based on their stamina profiles.

1) Saxon Warrior

2) Delano Roosevelt

3) Masar

Victory should be a reality for stamina-laden Illusion

Dosage of previous Oaks winners

Year Filly DI

2017 Enable 0.60*

2016 Minding 0.64*

2015 Qualify 1.14*

2014 Taghrooda 0.81

2013 Talent 0.70*

2012 Was 0.77*

2011 Dancing Rain 4.78

2010 Snow Fairy 1.33

2009 Sariska 2.37

2008 Look Here 0.60

Average 1.37

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Galileo as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race.

Oaks

Wild Illusion

Dubawi – Rumh (Monsun)

Trained at Charlie Appleby’s Moulton yard at Newmarket, Wild Illusion won two of her three starts at a mile last term, culminating in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Chantilly, and was a fine fourth in the 1,000 Guineas on her reappearance. She is in fact the only Group 1 winner left in the race. Given that her damsire is Monsun (like Galileo a Classic/Solid chef-de-race) and her dam won over 10 furlongs and two miles, it is to her credit that Wild Illusion also has enough about her to win so well at a mile. The daughter of Dubawi can only improve again for stepping up on her very promising Guineas showing and even before Lah Ti Dar’s defection she was our selection for this.

Give And Take

Cityscape – Grace And Glory (Montjeu)

Has shown consistent form at two and three and has also improved for stepping up to middle distances this term, taking the Musidora in good style. A daughter of Cityscape out of an unraced Montjeu mare who is a full sister to Coronation Cup and Gold Cup winner Fame And Glory, who was also a runner-up in the Derby. Well placed in our table to get every yard of this trip.

Perfect Clarity

Nathaniel – Clarietta (Shamardal)

Remains unbeaten after taking the Lingfield Oaks Trial in pleasing style. By King George winner Nathaniel out of a Shamardal mare who was placed at Listed level over 10 furlongs. She appears close to the top of our table for stamina aptitude and should give a decent account of herself.

Sea Of Class

Sea The Stars – Holy Moon (Hernando)

One of two runners that trainer William Haggas has in the race. An unexposed Listed winner by Sea The Stars out of a Hernando mare and a half-sister to several middle-distance winners. Good stamina influences in her pedigree will help her perform to her potential at this trip.

Magical

Galileo – Halfway To Heaven (Pivotal)

At the time of writing Aidan O’Brien is responsible for eight of the remaining 13. Magical has close form with two absent stablemates Happily and September and split that pair in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh toward the end of last season. While she is yet to race beyond a mile and not guaranteed to fully get the trip here, her sire Galileo is key to her chances.

Magic Wand

Galileo – Prudenzia (Dansili)

The daughter of Galileo left her earlier form behind when stepping up in trip to take the Cheshire Oaks in commanding style from her stablemate Forever Together. She is out of the Dansili mare Prudenzia who won at Listed level over 11 furlongs in France and a full sister and half-sister to two middle-distance winners, notably Irish Oaks winner Chicquita (by Montjeu). Her stamina profile is fine for this, as emphasised by her high position in our table.

Forever Together

Galileo – Green Room (Theatrical)

Yet another daughter of Galileo who ran on to finish a good second to her stablemate Magic Wand in the Cheshire Oaks. As with that one she has good stamina aptitude at this trip.

I Can Fly

Fastnet Rock – Madonna Dell’Orto (Montjeu)

By Fastnet Rock out of a mare who raced over eight to 10 furlongs. Her chances of getting the trip here reside in her damsire Montjeu, who is a chef-de-race influence for classic stamina.

Bye Bye Baby

Galileo – Remember When (Danehill Dancer)

The daughter of Galileo is out of the Danehill Dancer mare Remember When, the runner-up in Snow Fairy’s Oaks in 2010, and a full sister to three winners at trips in excess of a mile. She is well placed in our table in terms of stamina aptitude to get this trip and won on her most recent appearance over 10 furlongs at the Curragh. She is the right type to be lining up in this.

Sizzling

Galileo – Weekend Strike (Smart Strike)

Yet another by Galileo, out of the dam Weekend Strike. In addition to stamina strength, good classic speed influences are apparent on the dam side derived largely from Mr Prospector and his stallion son Smart Strike.

Athena

Camelot – Cherry Hinton (Green Desert)

Although she hasn’t actually won a race in her six racecourse appearances she did finished runner-up to Sea Of Class in a Listed event over 10 furlongs at Newbury on her most recent outing. A daughter of 2,000 Guineas and Derby winner Camelot and a half-sister to Bracelet (by Montjeu) who won the Irish Oaks. Likely to stay the trip but races keenly and leaves herself vulnerable to finishers at the business end.

Flattering

Galileo – Pikaboo (Pivotal)

Opened her account by winning her maiden at Cork on her reappearance this term and decent third behind Perfect Clarity in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. The trip here shouldn’t be an issue for this daughter of Galileo.

Ejtyah

Frankel – Darysina (Smart Strike)

Third to Give And Take in the Musidora, but others are better placed to effectively see out the trip even though she does have points in the stamina wing of her profile.

Verdict

The top four or five in our table could well occupy the top four or five places in the race itself. Wild Illusion was a strong fancy in the 1,000 Guineas despite our belief that whatever she did at Newmarket she would improve on at Epsom. Considering her fine effort in the fillies opening classic we do not intend to desert her now and even before the several defections from the likes of Lah Ti Dar, Clemmie, Happily and September, expected her to take top honours here. Perfect Clarity is as yet unbeaten and will be fully effective at this trip, while the chances of the likes of Give And Take, Bye Bye Baby, Magic Wand, Sea Of Class and Forever Together will also be enhanced at 12 furlongs.

1) Wild Illusion

2) Give And Take

3) Perfect Clarity

4) Magic Wand

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.semiller5.wixsite.com/thedosagesystem and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.