2,000 and 1,000 Guineas (Newmarket)

Steve Miller 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas – Dosage Special

A version of this appeared in this week's Racing Post Weekender

Elarqam looks good enough to steal the show from Klimt

THE NEW SEASON brings with it the untapped potential of a fresh classic generation of thoroughbreds and the Qipco 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas pose the usual conundrum of this brimming potential set against typically scant form. Where the form is inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to fill the gaps and identify those with the best blend of speed and stamina, in relative terms, to succeed in the race.

Two types go to war

Two distinct types tend to run well in the Guineas, the traditional speed-miler and those who are not only able to step up to middle-distances but are destined for such trips. This was never better illustrated than in this column’s preview of the 2014 2,000 Guineas (Index flags up contrast between Kingman and Australia) in which Kingman (DI 2.08, a speed-miler, free of the influence of Galileo) and Australia (DI 0.67, by Galileo and a subsequent winner of the Derby) finished a head apart in second and third (half-a-length behind the winner Night Of Thunder, whose damsire is Galileo). Galileo (one of the newest additions to the chef-de-race roster) while not unique is something of an enigma in that he is able to impart prepotent influence for both speed and stamina and has radically affected the 10-year average Dosage Index (DI) for the 2,000 Guineas since his inclusion as a Classic/Solid (split between classic speed and middle-distance stamina) chef-de-race. The 10-year average for this race was once closer to 2.0 than 1.0. However, the average for the past ten 2,000 Guineas winners is now 1.01 and 1.51 for the 1,000 Guineas (see the two small tables). The index mark for the colts of 1.01 is typically associated with Derby candidates rather than milers and is a consequence of six of the past seven Guineas winners having Galileo present in their pedigrees (two of the past 10 in the 1,000 Guineas). Those free of the influence of Galileo (or others such as Montjeu) that are likely to excel at a mile will typically have higher DIs than this. The likes of Makfi (2.11), Sea The Stars (1.67), George Washington (1.67) and Haafhd (also 1.67), as well as the narrowly beaten runner-up Kingman (2.08), all had DIs closer to 2.0 than to 1.0, as did the fillies, Miss France (1.67), Sky Lantern (1.80), Homecoming Queen (2.20), Special Duty (2.00), Ghanaati (1.71) and Natagora (2.20). So, we might conclude that a DI of approaching, or around, 2.0 may be ideal, assuming Galileo (or Montjeu) is absent from the pedigree. If Galileo is present the additional prepotent stamina that he imparts will bring the DI to around 1.0 or below (as it does with six of the 10 previous winners in our table and seven of the 10 if we include Montjeu). The question remains which of the two types will take this year’s renewal.

Dosage of previous 2,000 Guineas winners

Year Colt DI

2017 Churchill 0.76*

2016 Galileo Gold 0.74*

2015 Gleneagles 0.73*

2014 Night Of Thunder 0.57*

2013 Dawn Approach 1.00*

2012 Camelot 0.68

2011 Frankel 0.67*

2010 Makfi 2.11

2009 Sea The Stars 1.67

2008 Henrythenavigator 1.16

Average 1.01

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Galileo as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race.

The two large tables show those left in the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas at the confirmation stage (17 in each race). As usual, those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI).

2018: 2,000 Guineas contenders

Masar

New Approach ­­– Khawlah (Cape Cross)

The Charlie Appleby-trained Masar took the Craven at Newmarket on his most recent start in impressive style for Godolphin and was finishing to good effect when sixth behind Mendelssohn in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at the back end of last season. The colt is by Derby-winner and 2,000 Guineas runner-up New Approach (a stallion son of Galileo) out of the Cape Cross mare Khawlah, who won the UAE Derby over nine-and-a-half furlongs. While Masar should prove proficient at middle distances he has proved just as effective over this undulating straight mile as his sire was. With the defection of his stablemate Ghaiyyath (a dark horse for the Derby), Masar will now be Appleby’s sole representative. Anything finishing ahead of this one will be in the thick of the shake-up.

Roaring Lion

Kitten’s Joy – Vionnet (Street Sense)

Roaring Lion was well beaten into third by Masar in the Craven and had to give best to Saxon Warrior after hitting the front in the Racing Post Trophy at the end of last season. The Kitten’s Joy colt had won twice at Newmarket before that, including when beating Nelson a neck in the Royal Lodge. Out of a Street Sense mare who won over a mile on turf in the US. According to his Dosage reading he is well suited to a mile and could get a little further, but stamina doesn’t appear to be his strong suit and plans for the French Derby, voiced by his trainer John Gosden, might be stretching him.

Without Parole

Frankel – Without You Babe (Lemon Drop Kid)

A son of Frankel out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, also trained at Gosden’s Clarehaven base. The colt has won two from two over a mile, opening his account for the season at Yarmouth impressively. Despite not graduating from novice company as yet he looks exciting. There is good middle-distance stamina in the pedigree and he features toward the head of our table for stamina aptitude. He should stay the Derby trip (certainly better than his stablemate) if they choose to step him up.

Elarqam

Frankel – Attraction (Efisio)

The Mark Johnston-trained Elarqam is unbeaten in just two starts last season for Hamden Al Maktoum. After victory in a sire-restricted novice stakes race at York the colt took the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes over seven furlongs at Newmarket in relentless style, looking better the further he went. Beautifully bred for racing, by the all-conquering Frankel out of the 1,000 Guineas and multiple Group 1-winning mare Attraction (by Efisio). The colt will be very well suited to mile as well as middle-distance races at top level. He was given a racecourse tune-up at Newmarket’s Craven meeting and has been working at home with Feilden Stakes winner Mildenberger. He will thus go to the Guineas without the need for competing in a recognised trial. The Dante seems the logical next step after the Guineas in which he is taken to perform with distinction.

Cardsharp

Lonhro – Pure Illusion (Danehill)

Cardsharp, also trained by Johnston, is well exposed, winning four of his 11 starts and placed third in four others last season, including the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket, where he beat US Navy Flag and Rajasinghe. US Navy Flag subsequently turned the tables on him back at Newmarket in the Middle Park and the Dewhurst. A predominance of speed in his pedigree suggests the son of Lonrho will be best suited to sprint distances. While it is not impossible he could stretch to a mile, despite only winning at five and six furlongs thus far, it is not likely he will do so well enough to figure here. Elarqam has by far the superior stamina of this stable pairing and it may be that Cardsharp sets up the race for that one (or another of the stamina colts), whether intentionally or otherwise.

Tip Two Win

Dark Angel – Freddie’s Girl (More Than Ready)

Roger Teal is understandably excited about his debut in the 2,000 Guineas with the Dark Angel colt, Tip Two Win. Runner-up to Elarqam in the Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket he has since won twice at Doha, in Qatar, the second of which was a local Group 2 over a mile.

Ballydoyle contingent

Gustav Klimt

Galileo – Massarra (Danehill)

Superlative Stakes winner Gustav Klimt, who has won on good to firm and heavy going, took the Listed 2,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown comfortably on his reappearance for his Ballydoyle connections, with stablemates Kenya and US Navy Flag toiling in his wake on the heavy going. By Galileo out of the Danehill mare Massarra, who won three six-furlong races at two and three. The Aidan O’Brien-trained colt will stay the Rowley Mile comfortably and has the scope for middle distances, but clearly also possesses a potent turn of foot from good speed influences in his pedigree. He looks a versatile colt that ticks all of the boxes and has a compelling chance here.

Saxon Warrior

Deep Impact – Maybe (Galileo)

Saxon Warrior already looks capable of stepping up in trip, with all three of his victories last term coming at a mile. Even so, the son of Deep Impact is clearly effective at a mile at this stage and if the stamina colts show through here he will be among them. It seems quite likely that he will make up into a Derby horse with Deep Impact as his sire and Galileo the damsire. He nonetheless inherits a bit of kick from his dam Maybe who was unbeaten in five appearances as a two-year-old at six and seven furlongs and was good enough to finish third in the 1,000 Guineas as a three-year-old.

US Navy Flag

War Front – Misty For Me (Galileo)

The War Front colt is very exposed, winning four of his 12 starts and placed in three others. He looked impressive when completing the Middle Park/Dewhurst double from stablemate Mendelssohn, but subsequently disappointed when weakening from a leading position in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to finish tenth of 12 runners. The colt found the heavy going too much on his reappearance this season, when trailing in behind his stablemate Gustav Klimt at Leopardstown. Nevertheless, his form at Newmarket is out of the top drawer and the trip is not an issue. Out of the high-class Galileo mare Misty For Me, a multiple Group 1 winner including the Pretty Polly Stakes over 10 furlongs.

Murillo

Scat Daddy – Mostaqeleh (Rahy)

The Tipperary maiden winner was subsequently placed in two Group 2s at Ascot and the Curragh last term over six furlongs. Another by Scat Daddy out of a Rahy mare that won at six and seven furlongs and was runner-up in a Group 2 over eight furlongs in France. Good chances of getting the trip as a ‘speed miler’ type rather than as one with additional stamina.

Rest of the field

Expert Eye

Acclamation – Exemplify (Dansili)

Very impressive winner of the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last term, for Sir Michael Stoute and Khalid Abdulla, but subsequently finished last of nine (found to be lame after race) in the Dewhurst. Ran with some promise to finish runner-up to James Garfield on his reappearance, in the Greenham at Newbury, but looked headstrong in the early stages of that race.

James Garfield

Exceed And Excel – Whazzat (Daylami)

Newbury Group 2 winner James Garfield also took the Group 3 Greenham Stakes at the Berkshire track on his reappearance from Expert Eye and is set to be trainer George Scott’s first runner in the race. The Exeed And Excel colt looks quite smart, with a turn of foot, and effective at distances up to and around a mile.

Hey Gaman

New Approach – Arsaadi (Dubawi)

Hey Gaman finished a close up third behind James Garfield and Expert Eye in the Greenham after making the pace. The New Approach colt, out of a Dubawi mare, won a Listed race at Newbury last term and was narrowly beaten in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster by Seahenge. Already a winner over seven furlongs and will have no problem getting a mile here.

Raid

Havana Gold – Remarkable Story (Mark Of Esteem)

A Doncaster maiden winner who was far from disgraced when fourth to James Garfield in the Greenham. By Havana Gold out of a Mark Of Esteem mare, there is an absence of prepotent speed in his Dosage profile, which by default pushes him to the top of our stamina aptitude table. While not expected to show the sort of extreme stamina that this might indicate he should nonetheless improve for stepping up in trip to eight furlongs and above.

Headway

Havana Gold – On Her Way (Medicean)

Winner of the Listed Spring Cup on his reappearance at Lingfield for his trainer William Haggas, showing a burst of speed to cut the race leader down. Only just held when runner-up in the Coventry at Royal Ascot by Rajasinghe last year and clearly useful. Despite not yet being tried at a mile he will have no problem getting it. His trainer emphasises he wants fast ground and would not take part on soft going.

Rajasinghe

Choisir – Bunditten (Soviet Star)

The plan with last season’s Coventry Stakes winner has always been to go straight to the 2,000 Guineas. Following the Coventry he was third to Cardsharp in a Group 2 at Newmarket but finished down the field in his two subsequent starts at top level. The son of Choisir, out of a Soviet Star mare, will prove effective at up to and around a mile and trainer Richard Spencer is banking on him running to his potential as a fresh horse.

Nebo

Kodiac – Kindling (Dr Fong)

The Charlie Hills-trained colt finished mid division in the Free Handicap, behind the filly Anna Nerium, on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket. He performed with credit at Group 2 level last season over six and seven furlongs and was good enough to win a Group 3 event at Newbury at the back end. Out of the Dr Fong mare Kindling who won middle-distance and staying races for Mark Johnston. The mile will not present a problem despite the sharper influence of his sire Kodiac.

Verdict

An interesting field with two clear types that both have precedents for winning this race (which has rather messed up our moving average). A slow pace would suit the traditional speed milers (the Ferraris of the field), but the Guineas is invariably run at an honest pace (not to say breakneck on occasion). This would favour the stamina (Rolls-Royce) types who have prospects of stepping up to middle distances. Elarqam, a grandson of Galileo, is just favoured to Galileo’s son Gustav Klimt, who will surely go very close here. Masar and Saxon Warrior are also expected to make it a cracking contest and the exciting novice Without Parole could also finish thereabouts.

1) Elarqam

2) Gustav Klimt

3) Masar

4) Saxon Warrior

5) Without Parole

It should all end happily for the daughter of Galileo

Dosage of previous 1,000 Guineas winners

Year Filly DI

2017 Winter 0.60*

2016 Minding 0.64*

2015 Legatissimo 0.89

2014 Miss France 1.67

2013 Sky Lantern 1.80

2012 Homecoming Queen 2.20

2011 Blue Bunting 1.40

2010 Special Duty 2.00

2009 Ghanaati 1.71

2008 Natagora 2.20

Average 1.51

* Adjusted for the inclusion of Galileo as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race.

2018: 1,000 Guineas contenders

Team Ballydoyle

Happily

Galileo – You’resothrilling (Storm Cat)

Already a dual Group 1 winner and winner of four of her seven starts last term. Close form with her stablemates September (who dropped out of this race at the confirmation stage) and Magical, who she got the better of in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh, before going on to beat the colts in the Grand Criterium at Chantilly. Bred on the same Galileo/Storm Cat cross as her stablemate Clemmie (who would also be here barring a setback). Her dam, You’resothrilling, won at six furlongs. The filly quickens impressively, has winning form against smart colts, a mile already suits her well, and she has the scope to get further. There is little not to like about her.

I Can Fly

Fastnet Rock – Madonna Dell’Orto (Montjeu)

Dundalk maiden winner for Aidan O’Brien last term and subsequently a length third to Altyn Orda at Newmarket in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes over seven furlongs. Also finished third in the ‘Priory Bell’ 1,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown on her reappearance, behind Who’s Steph. By Fastnet Rock out of a Montjeu mare who raced over eight to 10 furlongs, she will have no problem getting the trip here and should get further in due course.

Bye Bye Baby

Galileo – Remember When (Danehill Dancer)

Winner of a Listed event at Navan over eight furlongs for her Ballydoyle connections after beating Altyn Orda in her maiden at Newmarket. The daughter of Galileo is out of the Danehill Dancer mare Remember When, the runner-up in Snow Fairy’s Oaks in 2010 and a full sister to three winners at trips in excess of a mile, so she will have no problem with the trip here and features close to the top of our stamina aptitude table.

Sarrocchi

Galileo – Thai Haku (Oasis Dream)

Another Ballydoyle inmate and another by Galileo. The filly won a Leopardstown maiden over seven furlongs but, as with Bye Bye Baby, stamina is not an issue and they feature together at the head of our table for stamina aptitude.

Sizzling

Galileo – Weekend Strike (Smart Strike)

By Galileo out of a Smart Strike mare. In addition to stamina strength good classic speed influences are apparent on the dam side, derived largely from Mr Prospector and his stallion son Smart Strike.

Hannon’s hand

Anna Nerium

Dubawi – Anna Oleanda (Old Vic)

The filly showed she remains in good heart when beating the colts in the Free Handicap at Newmarket’s Craven meeting on her seasonal reappearance, for trainer Richard Hannon. She got up to win a Group 3 event at Salisbury over six furlongs last season, after winning a novice event at Newmarket over seven furlongs in which she just held on. A full sister to Piping Rock (trained by Richard Hannon senior) who won three races at six and seven furlongs at two and Alkawn, who won twice over eight furlongs at three. The Dubawi filly’s Dosage indicates she will stay a mile.

Billesdon Brook

Champs Elysees – Coplow (Manduro)

Also trained by Richard Hannon, the Champs Elysees filly won three races at seven furlongs last season, including Goodwood’s Prestige Stakes, but some five lengths fourth to Soliloquy in the Nell Gwyn on her reappearance this term. Out of a Manduro mare who was campaigned at middle distances, so there should be no issues with the trip here.

Vitamin

Camelot – True Verdict (Danehill Dancer)

Hannon could also saddle this daughter of Camelot, the dual 2,000 Guineas and Derby winner. Vitamin raced twice last season and beat Soliloquy in a novice stakes race over seven furlongs at Newmarket. Out of a Danehill Dancer mare who won and was placed at six furlongs she nonetheless will get the mile and improve for stepping up.

Rest of field

Laurens

Siyouni – Recambe (Cape Cross)

Winner of three of her four starts last season for trainer Karl Burke, culminating in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket in which she just held September by the slimmest of margins. The Siyouni filly, out of a Cape Cross mare, has the potential to step up in trip and could improve again for it. A gritty performer with a touch of class and a credit to her trainer.

Altyn Orda

Kyllachy – Albanka (Giant’s Causeway)

Four appearances to date, all at Newmarket and all over seven furlongs, have not seen her out of the first two. After finishing runner-up in two Newmarket maidens the daughter of Kyllachy won the 14-runner Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes, beating Gavota and I Can Fly. Her reappearance this season in the Nell Gwyn, for trainer Roger Varian, saw her finish second to the smart Soliloquy. Effective at seven furlongs and likely to be at least as good at eight.

Madeline

Kodiac – Madhulika (Marchand De Sable)

Varian also trains the Kodiac filly Madeline, winner of Newbury’s Listed Rose Bowl Stakes last season. Subsequently runner-up in the Lowther Stakes at York and third behind Clemmie in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. Subsequently disappointing in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar and not seen out since. Out of a Marchand De Sable mare the filly has chances of getting eight furlongs, but may prove best at distances below a mile.

Soliloquy

Dubawi – Dysphonia (Lonhro)

This season’s comfortable Nell Gwyn winner has been supplemented for the 1,000 Guineas at a cost of £30,000 by Godolphin. The Charlie Appleby-trained filly is a daughter of Dubawi out of a mare that won at Listed level over a mile in Australia. Soliloquy will be fine at this trip and her Dosage (despite the low points score) does nothing to contradict this.

Wild Illusion

Dubawi – Rumh (Monsun)

Also trained at Appleby’s Moulton yard at Newmarket and another by Dubawi, Wild Illusion won two of her three starts at a mile last term culminating in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Chantilly. The filly has won on good to firm and soft going and will stay beyond a mile. Given that her damsire is Monsun (like Galileo a Classic/Solid chef-de-race) and her dam won over 10 furlongs and two miles, it is to her credit that Wild Illusion also has enough about her to win so well at a mile. She can only improve again for stepping up in trip and is already smart at this trip. Whatever she does here she should improve on in the Oaks.

Teppal

Camacho – Jummana (Cadeaux Genereux)

David Simcock’s charge won both of her races, over seven furlongs, with a minimum of fuss last season. Only speed influences are apparent in her pedigree, so she may not enjoy being stretched too far in terms of stamina.

Worship

Havana Gold – Up In Time (Noverre)

Simcock also trains the Havana Gold filly Worship who won her only race at the very backend of last season at Kempton over six furlongs. Her Dosage gives her every chance of getting a mile this season.

Dan’s Dream

Cityscape – Royal Ffanci (Royal Applause)

Dan’s Dream took the Fred Darling at Newbury making it two wins from two starts this season, having also won at Bath, over five-and-a-half furlongs, at the end of March for trainer Mick Channon. The pedigree looks all about speed, being a daughter of Cityscape out of a Royal Applause mare and she appears at the foot of our stamina aptitude table. An honestly contested Rowley Mile may find her out. The filly has little prospect of stepping up in trip and may be best placed reverting to sprint distances after attempting this, for which she has been supplemented to take part.

Liquid Amber

Kitten’s Joy – Pachattack (Pulpit)

After finishing runner-up in her maiden at the Curragh she returned to the course in August to take a Group 3 event on yielding going over a mile and has not been seen out since. The Kitten’s Joy filly has an abundance of prepotent speed (some 18 points in the Brilliant and Intermediate categories) largely deriving from her grandsire El Prado and damsire Pulpit, placing the filly close to the foot of our table on a DI of 2.6. Nevertheless, 16 points in her central Classic division and two stamina points in the Solid category means that she will perform to full effect at around a mile, unlike those with an absence of points in the stamina wing of their profile.

Eirene

Declaration Of War – Za Za Zoom (Le Vie Dei Colori)

Winner of a novice stakes race at Doncaster over six furlongs and a Listed event at Newbury over five furlongs last season, for trainer Dean Ivory. She finished an encouraging third to Soliloquy and Altyn Orda, over seven furlongs, on her seasonal reappearance in the Nell Gwyn, posting her highest rating to date. The Declaration Of War filly should also prove effective at a mile.

Verdict

Happily, bred on the same Galileo/Storm Cat cross as Clemmie, is taken to represent her yard to telling effect and carry the day, while Wild Illusion, Laurens and the supplemented Soliloquy all demand utmost respect. Vitamin is unexposed and while she may be a little flattered by last season’s win over Soliloquy could nevertheless outrun her big odds.

1) Happily

2) Wild Illusion

3) Laurens

4) Soliloquy

5) Vitamin

More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.semiller5.wixsite.com/thedosagesystem and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.